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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Amazingly fast response

August 24th, 2008, 9:12pm by Sam Wang

Now that’s a fast response in the Meta-Analysis.

On August 18th-20th, the electoral vote estimator appeared to be at a new plateau of Obama 289-291 EV, McCain 247-249 EV. Then on Thursday the 21st, John McCain had a very bad day. The next day the estimator started creeping up, presumably because the last day of multi-day polling caught the beginning of the fallout. Now we’re at Obama 300 EV, McCain 238 EV, with a Popular Meta-Margin of 2.36% and rising.

Seeing this effect so quickly and clearly comes from having very high precision.

Tags: 2008 Election

2 Comments so far ↓

  • Independent

    “Seeing this effect so quickly and clearly comes from having very high precision.”

    I must say you’re very brave/confident. I haven’t yet spotted this trend being confirmed at other sites.

  • Sam Wang

    I was moved to comment when I saw the change continue in the same direction for several days. Other sites are less precise and therefore would have trouble picking up the change.

    Caveat: there was at most one day of sampling after the houses event. It is also possible that some other event has driven the change, though I am not sure what that would be.

    In any event, this uptick is about to be overwhelmed by the next two weeks’ events – whatever their net effect is.