Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

July 25 update: Obama 294 McCain 244

July 25th, 2008, 1:08pm by Sam Wang

While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.

The Popular Meta-Margin is Obama +2.3%, meaning that if his overall margin dropped by 2.3%, the median would be an exact toss-up. As an independent comparison, some narrowing seems to appear in the averages of national polls as well, as seen on

Both results represent a narrowing from July 20th. This is surprising since news events featuring Obama (al-Maliki endorsement of his plan, visits to Afghanistan and Iraq) and McCain (several gaffes, including one on the surge) seem to favor Obama. This gets back to the question of which events are the ones that move voter sentiment. It’s not always obvious from our own reactions, especially if we ourselves are strongly decided. To see what seemed to move voters in 2004, click here.

Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

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