Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from July 31st, 2008

Want to see individual state probabilities?

July 31st, 2008, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.

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Tags: Site News

Our accuracy compared with national poll averages

July 31st, 2008, 12:08pm by Sam Wang

The question arises: how good is the Meta-Analysis in comparison with a more conventional measure such as an average of multiple national polls? Answer: Today, the Meta-Analysis is over four times as accurate as an average of recent national polls. Furthermore, it gives an estimate in the units that matter – electoral votes. Here’s why. […]

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Tags: Uncategorized feed is live! O 331, McC 207, Meta-Margin 3.5%

July 29th, 2008, 2:44pm by Sam Wang

The data feed from is live! Many thanks to Mark Blumenthal and Eric Dienstfrey for their assistance.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

July 25 update: Obama 294 McCain 244

July 25th, 2008, 1:08pm by Sam Wang

While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

We’re back!

July 20th, 2008, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

For those of you who followed my analysis in 2004, welcome back. Just as I did then, I’ll be providing meta-analysis of polling in the 2008 Presidential race. My central goal is to reduce hundreds of state-level polls to simple statistics that will show you the state of play. The methods will be transparent, and […]

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Tags: 2008 Election