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Quick NJ Governor’s Race Calculation

October 11th, 2005, 12:00pm by Sam Wang


In the New Jersey governor’s race, recent polls show the Corzine-Forrester margin as 8% (48-40, Fairleigh-Dickinson, 10/4-9), 2% (47-45, Marist, 10/5-6), 7% (44-37, Star-Ledger, 10/3-6), 9% (43-34, Monmouth, 9/21-26), and 4% (48-44, Quinnipiac, 9/20-25). The average margin is Corzine ahead of Forrester by 6.0 ± 1.3% (mean ± SEM). That puts Corzine 4.6 sigma ahead of Forrester, a statistically very large margin. Oct. 20: more recent data here and at BlueJersey.

Tags: 2006 Elections · Meta-analysis

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