Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 29th, 2004

Thoughts on the Gallup Controversy

September 29th, 2004, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Relevant to the current Gallup controversy: Here is a table of Gallup national presidential polls, along with Party ID statistics for each poll. The GOP-Democratic margin in the poll correlates quite closely with the Bush-Kerry margin. In fact, the correlation coefficient is 0.73 (r2=0.53, P<0.001). Put into lay terms, this means that Party ID gap […]

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Tags: 2004 Election