Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 29th, 2004

Thoughts on the Gallup Controversy

September 29th, 2004, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Relevant to the current Gallup controversy: Here is a table of Gallup national presidential polls, along with Party ID statistics for each poll. The GOP-Democratic margin in the poll correlates quite closely with the Bush-Kerry margin. In fact, the correlation coefficient is 0.73 (r2=0.53, P<0.001). Put into lay terms, this means that Party ID gap […]

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Tags: 2004 Election