Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 23rd, 2004

Using the Bias Calculation

August 23rd, 2004, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

You can use the bias calculation to estimate where things are headed. If you think turnout will boost your candidate by N points, add that. If you think that one candidate will gain X points at the expense of the other, add 2*X. For instance, if turnout will increase Kerry’s vote by 2 points, but […]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Correcting the Margin of Error

August 20th, 2004, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

For margin of error junkies: Rachel Findley pointed out this comparison of polls to election outcomes, which finds that only 84% of election outcomes fall within the reported 95% confidence interval. This discrepancy allows a way to estimate polling errors that go beyond sampling error. If the additional error is normally distributed, an appropriate correction […]

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Tags: 2004 Election