Probability distribution of all possible outcomes calculated from current state polls. The central dark blue bars represent the 95% confidence interval. The tails are plotted in green.
Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history
-
Poll Updates- US: National Survey (NBC/WSJ 9/22-26) September 29, 2010
- OH-Gov: 43% Kasich (R), 42% Strickland (D) (CBS/Times 9/23-27) September 29, 2010
- PA: 45% Toomey (R), 40% Sestak (D) (Suffolk 9/24-27) September 28, 2010
- OH: 47% Kasich (R), 46% Strickland (D) (Ipsos/Reuters 9/23-25) September 28, 2010
- OH-Sen: 51% Portman (R), 42% Fisher (D) (Rasmussen 9/27) September 28, 2010
Presidential History and snapshot
State-by-State Presidential Maps
Meta-Analysis Thread
- Spacetime rift delays update until noon
October 7, 2008 | 11:42 amAndrew says there was “a routing problem this morning between the University and quite a few outside websites — a split in the internet, if you will.” For the next EV estimator update, check back at noon…
- VP debate: big audience but race unchanged
October 5, 2008 | 3:00 pmBiden v. Palin drew 70 million viewers, one-third more than Obama v. McCain. VP debates usually don’t matter, but I wondered… Read more »
- For locals: a talk on the Meta-Analysis
October 2, 2008 | 9:00 amTomorrow (Friday) at noon, I’ll give a talk in Kosuke Imai and Dustin Tingley’s political methodology seminar. If you’re nearby, you’re welcome to attend. Of course, the math will all be included. The blurb is here (PDF).
Update: Here’s another local event, happening next Tuesday: a panel on the reliability of state polls featuring both pollsters and academics, including Andrew Gelman, author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. I hear the panel will be webcast. If so I’ll post a link.
-
Archive for Meta-Analysis Thread »
- Spacetime rift delays update until noon
