Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

State-by-State Probabilities

State Current Margin Dem Nov. Win Probability
No bias D+2% bias R+2% bias
OR Merkley +19% 98% 99% 97%
MI Peters +12.5% 95% 96% 93%
MN Franken +10% 92% 94% 88%
VA Warner +10% 92% 94% 88%
NH Shaheen +2% 63% 74% 50%
KS Orman +1% 57% 69% 43%
NC Hagan +1% 57% 69% 43%
IA Ernst +0.5% 47% 60% 34%
AK Sullivan +1% 43% 57% 31%
CO Gardner +1.5% 40% 53% 28%
GA Perdue +3% 31% 43% 21%
LA Cassidy +4% 26% 37% 17%
AR Cotton +6% 17% 26% 12%
KY McConnell +7.5% 13% 19% 9%
SD Rounds +13.5% 4% 6% 3%
MS Cochran +16% 3% 4% 2%
WV Capito +17% 3% 3% 2%
MT Daines +19% 2% 3% 1%