Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

State-by-State Probabilities

A list of current state polls used by this website can be found here (CSV).

Win probabilities can be found here (CSV). From left to right the columns are:

  • Democratic win probability today (%)
  • current median polling margin (Democratic>0)
  • win probability adding 2% to Democratic nominee
  • win probability adding 2% to Republican nominee
  • two-letter state code
  • November win probability (random-diffusion model)

Many other files can be found in the data directory. Eventually we will have more documentation and a prettier front-end.