Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Snapshots are temporarily down…

…while we prepare November win probabilities. Also, media organizations have repeatedly misinterpreted the current snapshots as predictions – and not responded to corrections.

If you want to calculate your own probabilities, take the poll median on the front page and plug it into this procedure. Basically, divide the poll median by 5 and type the result into this t-score calculator with 2 degrees of freedom.

See you soon!