Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Politics & Polls: Year Of The Woman, 2018 – and North Carolina

October 28th, 2018, 7:30pm by Sam Wang

This Politics & Polls is a pre-midterms double-header, on women and on North Carolina.

This year, a record number of women candidates are running for federal office. Where did this come from, and how many of them will win? Julian Zelizer and I drill in with Prof. Danielle Thomsen of U.C. Irvine, who’s visiting Princeton for the year. And here’s a look at what this year’s new wave of women activists looks like in a formerly solid Republican bastion, California’s Orange County.

We also spoke with Barry Yeoman, who recently wrote a deeply-reported piece on the craziness of North Carolina politics. Our focus was Anita Earls, a woman who is favored to win a state Supreme Court seat. She would strengthen that court as a check on what members of both major parties are starting to see as a runaway legislature.

It’s a great episode. Give us a listen!

→ 3 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Friday Night viewing: Fixing Bugs in Democracy

October 26th, 2018, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

A few weeks ago, I gave a public lecture at Princeton’s Center for Information Technology Policy. Great audience, great discussion. Learn about partisan gerrymandering and how Open Data can help level the playing field for all citizens!

→ 2 CommentsTags: Princeton · Redistricting

Optimal 2018 donations in the home stretch: Senate, House, Governor

October 26th, 2018, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Judging from my mail, I think some of you think I am back online making predictions. This is not true!

PEC provides aggregation and information to reveal where you can make the most impact. Since almost the start, my reason for operating PEC was to show how such efforts might be optimized. And as I wrote in 2016, I’m not estimating any probabilities this year – that’s why there are only Meta-Margins above. If you want probabilities, I think FiveThirtyEight does a bang-up job. There, now you know I’m serious!

Now…where to give – House, Senate, or governor? Let’s look at current conditions. [Read more →]

→ Post a commentTags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: New Jersey, Ground Zero for swing districts

October 26th, 2018, 7:00am by Sam Wang

There are swing Congressional districts all over the nation. And right here in Princeton, we have an exceptional density of close races.

Within 25 miles of Princeton are three Congressional districts in which October poll medians [NJ] [PA] show the two candidates within 1 or 2 percentage points of each other: [Read more →]

→ 2 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · House

Can Michigan terminate gerrymandering? Analysis of Proposal 2

October 25th, 2018, 9:43am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is hitting the road! This week, members of my team are going to Michigan and California to investigate redistricting reform on the ground. We’re helping students of the Woodrow Wilson School as they evaluate best practices for how to implement an independent commission, which is on the ballot in Michigan.

Overall, it’s a great step forward for the Wolverine State. Here’s a our analysis of the proposal’s merits – and one area to keep an eye on. (Here are our detailed comments on the initiative as PDF and Word documents. Also see our analysis of Colorado Amendments Y and Z.)

[

→ 3 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · Redistricting

Is the Senate Kavanaugh bounce partially ending?

October 24th, 2018, 3:29pm by Sam Wang

People often ask if polls move opinion. Not that many people pay direct attention to the numbers. However, polls do set the tone for what journalists and pundits write…with some delay. Combined with the time it takes to conduct and release a poll, this means that news articles can be a lagging indicator of the state of play.

Currently, political writers have noted the turn of Senate races against Democrats. This comes from several key races in Republican states – Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota – moving toward Republicans at the same time that the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing came to a crescendo. Few of them have noticed that opinion seems to be swinging back:

Recent poll medians currently show the leaders in those states as Blackburn (R-TN) by 3%, Cruz (R-TX) by 8%, and Cramer (R-ND) by 12%. So in red states, post-Kavanaugh sentiment is partially holding. It’s unlikely that Democrats will win any of them, though I am keeping an eye on Tennessee.

Leaving those three races aside, Democrats have a narrow path to 50 seats – and split control. This would involve winning Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada, all of which are within two percentage points. Home-stretch polling error in midterm elections has been as high as 4 percentage points, so it’s possible. However, if the error goes in the other direction, Democrats could go as low as 45 seats. The median result is currently 47-48 Democratic seats and 52-53 Republican seats.

Why, in the face of high disapproval for Trump and pro-Democratic national sentiment (see House data), do Democrats still face an uphill battle in the Senate? Most of you already know the reason: lots of pro-Trump states have Senate races this year. But this year’s outcome also sets the stage for 2020, when Democrats have a far more favorable playing field. Even if the Senate does not flip for 2019, control in 2021 will be highly consequential for whoever is president – and for all of us.

→ 6 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: Florida

October 24th, 2018, 6:03am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.)

In less than two weeks, Florida voters have a chance to restore the right to vote to over 1.5 million Floridians – more than 1 in 10 of the adult voting population. This is by far the largest voting-rights question in any election in the nation. Amazingly, this is thanks to a ballot initiative that is backed by both the Koch brothers and the ACLU.

In addition, the two-decade hold by Republicans on Florida state politics could finally break if rising star Andrew Gillum wins the governor’s race. Finally, Florida has a whopping seven close Congressional races, a close Senate race, and a key Attorney General race.

Read on. [

→ Post a commentTags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: North Carolina

October 21st, 2018, 1:56pm by Sam Wang

Part of a series on Key Elections Near You.

One of the most remarkable states in this year’s election is North Carolina. Thanks to a lax state constitution, more than anywhere else in the Union, partisans have had the opportunity in North Carolina to isolate government from voters in a remarkable manner. But in two weeks, voters have an opportunity to get the Tar Heel State back on track.

Voters will choose a key state Supreme Court justice and the Congressional delegation, and vote on multiple critical ballot questions. These races will affect not just Congress, but life for Carolinians for decades to come – how judges are appointed and how elections are run. I cannot think of a more essential place for people to get out the vote statewide. [Read more →]

→ 2 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Saturday: on CNN with Smerconish, 9:30am Eastern

October 19th, 2018, 8:16pm by Sam Wang

Saturday at 9:30am Eastern on CNN, I joined @smerconish to talk about midterm elections. On my mind, a bug in democracy: this year Democrats could win the popular vote, yet still not retake the House.

P.S. We didn’t get to the part about how to repair the bugs. Basically, Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win the national popular vote (currently hovering around an 8-point margin). But they may still not retake the House (they’re only 2 points above estimated threshold for that). If that happens, it will be because of gerrymandering. Fixing that is a state-by-state battle. Help us with that!

→ 6 CommentsTags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Why Your Vote Matters: Wisconsin

October 19th, 2018, 7:43am by Sam Wang

As the election draws near, I’ll write some short essays on why it’s important to vote in specific critical states. Normally at PEC we focus on House and Senate races. But there are tons of important state and local races as well. They’re collected at the PEC Key Races page.

Let’s start with Wisconsin. Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so there’s a lot that activists can do to influence the election there. And this year, Wisconsin is especially important. [Read more →]

→ 1 CommentTags: 2018 Election · governors · Redistricting