People often ask if polls move opinion. Not that many people pay direct attention to the numbers. However, polls do set the tone for what journalists and pundits write…with some delay. Combined with the time it takes to conduct and release a poll, this means that news articles can be a lagging indicator of the state of play.
Currently, political writers have noted the turn of Senate races against Democrats. This comes from several key races in Republican states – Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota – moving toward Republicans at the same time that the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing came to a crescendo. Few of them have noticed that opinion seems to be swinging back:

Recent poll medians currently show the leaders in those states as Blackburn (R-TN) by 3%, Cruz (R-TX) by 8%, and Cramer (R-ND) by 12%. So in red states, post-Kavanaugh sentiment is partially holding. It’s unlikely that Democrats will win any of them, though I am keeping an eye on Tennessee.
Leaving those three races aside, Democrats have a narrow path to 50 seats – and split control. This would involve winning Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada, all of which are within two percentage points. Home-stretch polling error in midterm elections has been as high as 4 percentage points, so it’s possible. However, if the error goes in the other direction, Democrats could go as low as 45 seats. The median result is currently 47-48 Democratic seats and 52-53 Republican seats.
Why, in the face of high disapproval for Trump and pro-Democratic national sentiment (see House data), do Democrats still face an uphill battle in the Senate? Most of you already know the reason: lots of pro-Trump states have Senate races this year. But this year’s outcome also sets the stage for 2020, when Democrats have a far more favorable playing field. Even if the Senate does not flip for 2019, control in 2021 will be highly consequential for whoever is president – and for all of us.