This map provides a state-by-state overview of the current polling. States for which we are currently at least 95% confident in the outcome are considered “safe states” and are colored in the darkest color. States for which we are less confident in the outcome are more lightly colored (proportionally) based on the direction in which they are currently leaning (either towards Obama, or towards Romney). States which we currently view as tied are colored in white. Those states which are currently polling for Obama are colored in blue, and those for Romney are colored in red.
Because the map indicates probabilities and not margins, a state is intensely shaded when margins are consistent across multiple polls, even when those margins are small.
There are also three interactive (Java applet) versions of this map:
- With current polling data
- With a +2% boost for Barack Obama in each state
- With a +2% boost for Mitt Romney in each state
Special thanks to Drew Thaler for developing these maps.