State Current Margin Dem Nov. Win Probability
No bias D+2% bias R+2% bias
IL Duckworth +11% 98% 99% 97%
CO Bennet +8% 96% 98% 93%
NV Cortez Masto +4% 86% 93% 72%
PA McGinty +2.5% 77% 88% 56%
WI Feingold +1.5% 67% 84% 44%
IN Tied 50% 72% 28%
MO Blunt +0.5% 44% 67% 23%
NH Ayotte +0.5% 44% 67% 23%
NC Burr +1% 38% 62% 20%
FL Rubio +4% 14% 28% 7%
LA TBD +8% 4% 7% 2%
AZ McCain +12% 1% 2% 1%
IA Grassley +18% 0% 1% 0%
OH Portman +18% 0% 1% 0%
AK Murkowski +38% 0% 0% 0%