Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Entries Tagged as 'Uncategorized'

VP guessing

August 21st, 2008, 12:32am by Sam Wang

While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump… Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Uncategorized

Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258

August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang

A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Uncategorized

A technical note: Non-independence among states

August 7th, 2008, 7:28am by Sam Wang

The comments on the last thread were quite instructive, and led me to look over Silver’s methods documentation in detail. Wow, that’s quite a complex procedure he has. I should probably address your questions about it before commencing with further description of the Meta-Analysis (which is not a prediction).

[Read more →]

Tags: Meta-analysis · Uncategorized

A weakness in fivethirtyeight.com

August 4th, 2008, 3:43pm by Sam Wang

[Postscript: Some of you have pointed out that to account for non-independent drift between states, Silver implements an add-on procedure involving an adjustment after the win probabilities are calculated. Therefore, you say, simulations are necessary. Several points are being overlooked. First, the main effect of such a procedure is to increase the amount of uncertainty […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Uncategorized

Our accuracy compared with national poll averages

July 31st, 2008, 12:08pm by Sam Wang

The question arises: how good is the Meta-Analysis in comparison with a more conventional measure such as an average of multiple national polls? Answer: Today, the Meta-Analysis is over four times as accurate as an average of recent national polls. Furthermore, it gives an estimate in the units that matter – electoral votes. Here’s why. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Uncategorized