While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump… Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, […]
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Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258
August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang
A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more […]
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A weakness in fivethirtyeight.com
August 4th, 2008, 3:43pm by Sam Wang
[Postscript: Some of you have pointed out that to account for non-independent drift between states, Silver implements an add-on procedure involving an adjustment after the win probabilities are calculated. Therefore, you say, simulations are necessary. Several points are being overlooked. First, the main effect of such a procedure is to increase the amount of uncertainty […]
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