Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Uncategorized'

A long view of electoral history

September 5th, 2008, 11:22am by Sam Wang

As we wait for the eye of the polling hurricane to pass, here’s an interesting site: Voting America, created by the Digital Scholarship lab at the University of Richmond. It gives maps of Presidential election results at state, county, and population levels from 1840 to 2004. In addition there’s commentary on a variety of topics, [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]

September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang

We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

InTrade and Palin (again)

September 2nd, 2008, 10:59am by Sam Wang

InTrade has a new political contract: Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election, now trading at 12.0. Buy or sell? I’m thinking buy. (Update: strong buy.) (Update 2: That speech got the base excited – indeed, it may end up being the highlight of the convention. And she established [...]

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National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized

Palin not a hit with undecideds

August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

Waiting

August 30th, 2008, 9:54am by Sam Wang

Opinion-changing political events are now happening more frequently than state polls. The weakness I mentioned before, that until September the Meta-Analysis is a slow-moving index, is apparent. It contains no polls that started after August 21st, the date of McCain’s statement about his houses, for the following states: Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. [...]

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McCain’s VP according to InTrade…

August 29th, 2008, 9:08am by Sam Wang

Can it possibly be…Sarah Palin? Update 1: InTrade punked? Update 2: It’s Palin.

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Tags: Uncategorized

VP guessing (part 2) and electronic markets

August 27th, 2008, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Analysis EV estimator is unlikely to move much until post-convention polls come in. It appears that the post-houses gaffe cost John McCain 15 EV. We probably won’t ever know the exact amplitude, but I’m guessing it’s at least that much. My first VP guess (Sebelius or Kaine) wasn’t so good. This time I’ll use [...]

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Stopping false beliefs – lessons for journalists from brain science

August 25th, 2008, 9:43pm by Sam Wang

In my day job I’m a neuroscientist. Usually this does not intersect with politics, but today’s an exception. In June, my book co-author Sandra Aamodt and I wrote for the New York Times about how our brains lie to us, allowing the formation of false beliefs. Examples of false beliefs include rumors about Barack Obama’s [...]

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Psst… Want to Buy a Slightly Used Voting Machine?

August 22nd, 2008, 10:24am by Andrew Ferguson

Used touch-screen voting machines are going up for sale, as states and counties move to more secure technologies. Thus begins a new chapter in our struggle to find workable election technologies for the twenty-first century.

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Tags: Uncategorized