Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Uncategorized'

The Supreme Court’s rightward turn

June 28th, 2012, 6:31am by Sam Wang

Today at 10:00am the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) rules on the Affordable Care Act. Opinion by Chief Justice Roberts, maybe with Associate Justice Kennedy. Look for a 5-4 decision to overturn part/all, or a 6-3 decision to uphold (with CJ switching to maintain control). Update: upheld, 5-4. I misunderstood the advance word. Roberts wrote for the [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

2010 Congressional races – where to donate

October 25th, 2010, 3:34am by Sam Wang

Dear readers: If you’re looking for analysis of 2010 US Congressional polls, see Stochastic Democracy and the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight. The bottom line: Today’s polling indicates that the House will flip to Republican control (233-202) and the Senate will stay under Democratic control (52-48). From Stochastic Democracy: Where to donate. To get maximum effect [...]

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Tags: Politics · Uncategorized

Increase your IQ by four points

March 10th, 2009, 7:46pm by Sam Wang

For the next month, I’ll be guest-blogging at the New York Times, on Olivia Judson’s site, The Wild Side. Olivia’s off working on her latest book, leaving the writing in various hands – including those of me and my co-author, Sandra Aamodt. This week we write about intelligence, and how it can be affected by [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

We interrupt this blog…(The Today Show)

January 14th, 2009, 1:33am by Sam Wang

Something not related to polling at all: my book Welcome To Your Brain will be featured on the Today Show this morning, a few minutes after 8:00am. Dr. Nancy Snyderman is doing a segment on the book.

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Tags: Uncategorized

Donna Brazile isn’t going to the back of the bus

October 8th, 2008, 2:02pm by Sam Wang

Just watch. (Jezebel via Andrew Sullivan).

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Tags: 2008 Election · Uncategorized

Today: McCain +2.0+/-0.8% (adjusted EV Obama 238, McCain 300)

September 11th, 2008, 5:23pm by Sam Wang

It appears that the tie I reported before was indeed a fluctuation. Seven national polls conducted September 8-10 give McCain, once again, a median margin of 2.0+/-0.8% over Obama. Applying this as an adjustment to the EV estimator above gives a current estimate of Obama 238 EV, McCain 300 EV. The 95% confidence intervals are [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Princeton study on election prediction – your opinion matters!

September 10th, 2008, 2:04pm by Sam Wang

My colleague Dan Osherson in the Psychology department is conducting a survey that you might enjoy taking. The topic is our favorite one, the 2008 Presidential Election. It’s a bit reminiscent of electronic markets like InTrade, but the questions are more complex. There’s a prize for the best entry. Go on, take a look – [...]

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Palin’s image with women

September 9th, 2008, 8:10am by Sam Wang

A correspondent wanted to know if I had information on how John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin plays with women. Saying anything about Palin’s positives/negatives is difficult during the bounce. For now, a far larger divide than gender is marital status – marrieds prefer McCain, unmarrieds prefer Obama. That’s a bigger story than the absence [...]

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Post-convention national polls: 9-10 point bounce for McCain

September 8th, 2008, 1:42pm by Sam Wang

Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 [...]

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Tags: Site News · Uncategorized

A long view of electoral history

September 5th, 2008, 11:22am by Sam Wang

As we wait for the eye of the polling hurricane to pass, here’s an interesting site: Voting America, created by the Digital Scholarship lab at the University of Richmond. It gives maps of Presidential election results at state, county, and population levels from 1840 to 2004. In addition there’s commentary on a variety of topics, [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized