Princeton Election Consortium

Greetings, and thank you to all those who serve our nation: teachers, doctors, mailmen and mailwomen, scientists, construction workers, policemen, soldiers… This is a good occasion to (re)read General McChrystal’s inspiring essay on national service. Happy 4th!

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Today at 10:00am the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) rules on the Affordable Care Act. Opinion by Chief Justice Roberts, maybe with Associate Justice Kennedy. Look for a 5-4 decision to overturn part/all, or a 6-3 decision to uphold (with CJ switching to maintain control). Update: upheld, 5-4. I misunderstood the advance word. Roberts wrote for the [...]

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For the next month, I’ll be guest-blogging at the New York Times, on Olivia Judson’s site, The Wild Side. Olivia’s off working on her latest book, leaving the writing in various hands – including those of me and my co-author, Sandra Aamodt. This week we write about intelligence, and how it can be affected by [...]

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Something not related to polling at all: my book Welcome To Your Brain will be featured on the Today Show this morning, a few minutes after 8:00am. Dr. Nancy Snyderman is doing a segment on the book.

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It appears that the tie I reported before was indeed a fluctuation. Seven national polls conducted September 8-10 give McCain, once again, a median margin of 2.0+/-0.8% over Obama. Applying this as an adjustment to the EV estimator above gives a current estimate of Obama 238 EV, McCain 300 EV. The 95% confidence intervals are [...]

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My colleague Dan Osherson in the Psychology department is conducting a survey that you might enjoy taking. The topic is our favorite one, the 2008 Presidential Election. It’s a bit reminiscent of electronic markets like InTrade, but the questions are more complex. There’s a prize for the best entry. Go on, take a look – [...]

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A correspondent wanted to know if I had information on how John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin plays with women. Saying anything about Palin’s positives/negatives is difficult during the bounce. For now, a far larger divide than gender is marital status – marrieds prefer McCain, unmarrieds prefer Obama. That’s a bigger story than the absence [...]

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