It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad).
I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and again [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Uncategorized'
National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)
September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized
Palin not a hit with undecideds
August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang
Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. [...]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
Waiting
August 30th, 2008, 9:54am by Sam Wang
Opinion-changing political events are now happening more frequently than state polls. The weakness I mentioned before, that until September the Meta-Analysis is a slow-moving index, is apparent. It contains no polls that started after August 21st, the date of McCain’s statement about his houses, for the following states: Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
McCain’s VP according to InTrade…
August 29th, 2008, 9:08am by Sam Wang
Can it possibly be…Sarah Palin? Update 1: InTrade punked? Update 2: It’s Palin.
Tags: Uncategorized
VP guessing (part 2) and electronic markets
August 27th, 2008, 2:48pm by Sam Wang
The Meta-Analysis EV estimator is unlikely to move much until post-convention polls come in. It appears that the post-houses gaffe cost John McCain 15 EV. We probably won’t ever know the exact amplitude, but I’m guessing it’s at least that much.
My first VP guess (Sebelius or Kaine) wasn’t so good. This time I’ll use actual [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
Stopping false beliefs – lessons for journalists from brain science
August 25th, 2008, 9:43pm by Sam Wang
In my day job I’m a neuroscientist. Usually this does not intersect with politics, but today’s an exception.
In June, my book co-author Sandra Aamodt and I wrote for the New York Times about how our brains lie to us, allowing the formation of false beliefs. Examples of false beliefs include rumors about Barack Obama’s religion, [...]
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Psst… Want to Buy a Slightly Used Voting Machine?
August 22nd, 2008, 10:24am by Ed Felten
Used touch-screen voting machines are going up for sale, as states and counties move to more secure technologies. Thus begins a new chapter in our struggle to find workable election technologies for the twenty-first century.
Tags: Uncategorized
VP guessing
August 21st, 2008, 12:32am by Sam Wang
While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump…
Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, on [...]
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Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258
August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang
A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
