Princeton Election Consortium

While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess…

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A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more [...]

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The comments on the last thread were quite instructive, and led me to look over Silver’s methods documentation in detail. Wow, that’s quite a complex procedure he has. I should probably address your questions about it before commencing with further description of the Meta-Analysis (which is not a prediction).

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[Postscript: Some of you have pointed out that to account for non-independent drift between states, Silver implements an add-on procedure involving an adjustment after the win probabilities are calculated. Therefore, you say, simulations are necessary. I think several points are being overlooked. First, the main effect of such a procedure is to increase the amount [...]

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The question arises: how good is the Meta-Analysis in comparison with a more conventional measure such as an average of multiple national polls? Answer: Today, the Meta-Analysis is over four times as accurate as an average of recent national polls. Furthermore, it gives an estimate in the units that matter - electoral votes. Here’s why.
Averaging [...]

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