Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Site News'

300,000th view – thank you!

September 29th, 2008, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Last night we provided the 300,000th page view. I wasn’t expecting it until today, but links from Andrew Sullivan, DailyKos, and many others to The Disappearing Bradley Effect pushed us over. Thank you!

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Tags: Site News

Disappearing posts?

September 24th, 2008, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

Just a reminder – posts that are highly specific to the Meta-Analysis get shunted over to the right sidebar after a little while. This is especially true if they concern individual polls, a topic of transient interest.

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Tags: Site News

Show your support

September 20th, 2008, 7:57am by Sam Wang

This site doesn’t take donations. But one way to show your support is to give to the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. They’ve made what one survey suggests is, by some measures, the most effective ad of the campaign. Details – and equal time to an opposing cause – follow.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

Site features, old and new

September 15th, 2008, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

We’ve rearranged things a little. Andrew Ferguson and Drew Thaler have added features and documentation that I hope you’ll like. Foremost is the interactive electoral map on the right sidebar, which is helpful in examining likely future scenarios.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

Dialing it back…

September 10th, 2008, 8:34pm by Sam Wang

Reader PC thinks I need to be careful not to cross the line, so we can focus on the credibility of the work at hand. It’s a good point. The offending post is gone. Instead, here’s something more substantive: a video on the earmark queen. Which leads us to the funny bit:

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis · Site News

A welcome to new readers – and a caution

September 9th, 2008, 9:51am by Sam Wang

Welcome! One-fourth of this site’s traffic has come in the last two days. On Sunday, someone made the 100,000th page view. This post is for new (and returning) readers who need to be brought up to speed. Also, because of rapidly changing events, the true current snapshot is not what’s listed above. Instead, it’s McCain [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

Post-convention national polls: 9-10 point bounce for McCain

September 8th, 2008, 1:42pm by Sam Wang

Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 [...]

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Tags: Site News · Uncategorized

National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized

To poll obsessives everywhere: welcome (and welcome back)

August 14th, 2008, 11:25am by Sam Wang

If you’re a reader from 2004, welcome back. For everyone old and new, take a good look around. There’s lots to see. At first glance, there are two reasons you might be less interested in the Meta-Analysis this year: In 2004, the suspense was greater. Although Bush was in trouble for most of the summer, [...]

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Tags: Site News

Want to see individual state probabilities?

July 31st, 2008, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.

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Tags: Site News