Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history

Entries Tagged as 'Site News'

Dialing it back…

September 10th, 2008, 8:34pm by Sam Wang

Reader PC thinks I need to be careful not to cross the line, so we can focus on the credibility of the work at hand. It’s a good point. The offending post is gone. Instead, here’s something more substantive: a video on the earmark queen. Which leads us to the funny bit:

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis · Site News

A welcome to new readers – and a caution

September 9th, 2008, 9:51am by Sam Wang

Welcome! One-fourth of this site’s traffic has come in the last two days. On Sunday, someone made the 100,000th page view. This post is for new (and returning) readers who need to be brought up to speed.
Also, because of rapidly changing events, the true current snapshot is not what’s listed above. Instead, it’s McCain 300 [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

Post-convention national polls: 9-10 point bounce for McCain

September 8th, 2008, 1:42pm by Sam Wang

Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 [...]

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Tags: Site News · Uncategorized

National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad).
I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and again [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized

To poll obsessives everywhere: welcome (and welcome back)

August 14th, 2008, 11:25am by Sam Wang

If you’re a reader from 2004, welcome back. For everyone old and new, take a good look around. There’s lots to see.
At first glance, there are two reasons you might be less interested in the Meta-Analysis this year:

In 2004, the suspense was greater. Although Bush was in trouble for most of the summer, the success [...]

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Tags: Site News

Want to see individual state probabilities?

July 31st, 2008, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.

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Tags: Site News

FOX News Video

November 16th, 2004, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Footage of my appearance on Fox News: [2 MB version] [30 MB] [200 MB]

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Tags: 2004 Election · Site News