If you’re a reader from 2004, welcome back. For everyone old and new, take a good look around. There’s lots to see.
At first glance, there are two reasons you might be less interested in the Meta-Analysis this year:
In 2004, the suspense was greater. Although Bush was in trouble for most of the summer, the success [...]
Tags: Site News
Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.
Tags: Site News
Footage of my appearance on Fox News: [2 MB version] [30 MB] [200 MB]
Tags: 2004 Election · Site News
I don't know about you, but the suspense is killing me. Where is that history trend headed? If you look at the details, the big state that hasn't reported in weeks is Ohio. Once Ohio reports, we should have a fairly clear idea of the August swing, which I ascribe to McCain's Celebrity(!)/Anti-Christ ads.
Update: ...and, the other shoe drops. PPP (D) reports a tie in Ohio, an eight-point swing from their previous poll. As you can see from the history graph, the result, Obama 291 McCain 247, with a Meta-Margin of 1.58%, is the closest the race has been since mid-June. The next few weeks (VP selections, conventions, McCain's 72nd birthday) should be interesting to watch, to say the least.
Thanks to returning and new readers Washington Monthly, The Economist, Angry Bear, Chimpanzee Tea Party, and Matt McIrvin. McIrvin's capsule history of the 2004 Meta-Analysis is particularly good.
The comments on the last thread were quite instructive, and led me to look over Silver's methods documentation in detail. Wow, that’s quite a complex procedure he has. I should probably address your questions about it before commencing with further description of the Meta-Analysis (which is not a prediction). [Read more →]
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