Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate Polls Meandering Toward Presidential Race

October 14th, 2016, 9:27am by Sam Wang

The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day: I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Year Of The Woman, Again: Four Races That Will Determine The Senate Majority

October 13th, 2016, 6:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet The election of 1992 was hailed as the Year Of The Woman. In the wake of Anita Hill’s testimony against the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, female candidates such as Patty Murray were moved to run for office. Then-candidate Barbara Mikulski took issue with press coverage that treated her like a [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

The real news today…downticket

September 13th, 2016, 8:42am by Sam Wang

A journalist took the time to produce this https://t.co/uIo9WzIZYx — David Uberti (@DavidUberti) September 13, 2016 It is good for a cheap laugh to flay the media for its obsession with horserace. This week’s ongoing ruckus with Phlegm-ghazi confirms that reporters cannot get out of their mental rut of some older storyline. In this case, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Nervous?

September 7th, 2016, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Nervous about recent changes in polls? As usual, don’t pay attention to single surveys. However, it is true that the Presidential race has narrowed by a few percentage points; the median of national polls taken over the last week is Clinton +2%. PEC’s state poll-based analysis will probably continue to move toward Trump for at [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

The 2016 Senate Forecast

August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Update, August 31: The prior for this model is based entirely on the history of past Senate polling trends: Presidential coattails this year, and “throw the President’s bums out” in midterm years. PEC offers, once again, a pundit-free prediction. The original version of this post is archived here. Close readers of the Princeton Election Consortium [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate update

July 20th, 2016, 3:51pm by Sam Wang

Indiana is updated to be Young (R) vs. Bayh (D). Bayh is a massive favorite, and his entry into the race pushes the overall Senate snapshot to a median of 50-50.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate