Princeton Election Consortium

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Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Three Easy Pieces

November 1st, 2016, 9:16pm by Sam Wang

Three quick notes. Updates are now done every hour. I’m not trolling for traffic. I just want to be able to see the effects of new state polls soon after they hit the Huffington Post (their RSS feed is in the left sidebar). Like you, I watch the automated Princeton Election Consortium calculation! The Upshot, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? https://t.co/mZNwf56UpV — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so little? The answer: […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate Polls Meandering Toward Presidential Race

October 14th, 2016, 9:27am by Sam Wang

The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day: I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Year Of The Woman, Again: Four Races That Will Determine The Senate Majority

October 13th, 2016, 6:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet The election of 1992 was hailed as the Year Of The Woman. In the wake of Anita Hill’s testimony against the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, female candidates such as Patty Murray were moved to run for office. Then-candidate Barbara Mikulski took issue with press coverage that treated her like a […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate