Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Sound bites and bug bites

November 4th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug. https://t.co/3eefhWzI3y — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 19, 2016 We’re entering a period when all the math and data gets converted to short quotes. The above quote is pre-Comey, but I will live with it. I have some interviews [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

On CNN Digital: watch the data, not the drama

November 3rd, 2016, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

So, Julian Zelizer and I had an e-chat about next Tuesday on CNN Digital. Mostly themes you know!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #19: Election Night

November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Slow train coming

November 3rd, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang

The PEC calculation relies on state-level polls, which take time to come in. But by now the Meta-Analysis is current: of the top ten states listed in The Power Of One Voter, nearly all polls are post-Comey. The exceptions are Iowa and Michigan. Michigan is vexing because of one oddball survey taken over a two-month [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Three Easy Pieces

November 1st, 2016, 9:16pm by Sam Wang

Three quick notes. Updates are now done every hour. I’m not trolling for traffic. I just want to be able to see the effects of new state polls soon after they hit the Huffington Post (their RSS feed is in the left sidebar). Like you, I watch the automated Princeton Election Consortium calculation! The Upshot, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? https://t.co/mZNwf56UpV — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate