Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Why Your Vote Matters: Florida

October 24th, 2018, 6:03am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) In less than two weeks, Florida voters have a chance to restore the right to vote to over 1.5 million Floridians – more than 1 in 10 of the adult voting population. This is by far the largest voting-rights question in any election in the nation. Amazingly, this […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Triage and Refocus

October 17th, 2018, 11:43pm by Sam Wang

A curious inverse law seems to be at work. As politics gets louder and more extreme, public opinion becomes less volatile. As measured by public opinion, this trend dates to the mid-1990s, when Newt Gingrich led the charge to take control of Congress – a fateful turn in national politics. Fewer voters cross partisan lines […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Supreme Court partisanship comes into full view

October 9th, 2018, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation vote was the closest ever. It’s the culmination of a two-decade trend in all-out partisan warfare, the seeds of which were planted when Gingrich and McConnell swept into power in 1994. It’s now reached a seeming pinnacle with the confirmation of a party insider who was a player in the Starr investigation, […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · Senate · Supreme Court

Three Ways To Maximize Your Power

October 6th, 2018, 3:52pm by Sam Wang

It’s exactly one month to the election. Here are three ways to maximize your power. 1) Students: Figure out the place where your vote matters the most. This site, Make My Vote Matter, figures it out for you. It’s developed by a scientist, Ursula Wong-Brown, and shows you which address has more competitive House/Senate/governor races. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Post-Labor Day movement: for Republicans, a Kavanaugh effect?

October 5th, 2018, 9:24am by Sam Wang

We’re off to a late start this year; more balls in the air, especially gerrymandering, and a busy term. The House and Senate calculations are running for 2018, though we’re still polishing the display. The calculations are designed to pick up movement quickly. Here’s something notable: since Labor Day, both indicators show distinct movement, about […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · Supreme Court

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part II, the Senate

August 2nd, 2018, 1:04am by Sam Wang

In 2018, what’s a swing state? In many cases, it’s not the swing states that everyone focused on in 2016. How should you optimize your activism and donations? tl;dr: You can donate via the PEC ActBlue page (if you like Democrats) or the NRSC (if you like Republicans). The reason for the difference from 2016 […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Roy Moore as an ultimate test of the power of partisan loyalty

December 12th, 2017, 9:11pm by Sam Wang

Today’s Alabama special election to replace Senator Luther Strange (R) is of obvious interest for two reasons. First and foremost, since the Senate is now 52 R, 48 D/I. After tonight, it will either stay the same, or become 51 R, 49 D/I. This would adversely affect the legislative ability of an already-dysfunctional Republican Congress. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Politics & Polls #67: What happened in Virginia? with Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley

November 17th, 2017, 9:48am by Sam Wang

Democrats scored big wins last week in New Jersey and Virginia elections. Julian Zelizer and I chew it over with Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley. Plus a tiny bit about whether Alabama will elect a child molester as senator, or choose a Democrat who prosecutes KKK terrorists. Life is full of hard choices. All in […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics · Senate

Politics & Polls #37: a chat with Robert Costa

March 30th, 2017, 10:06am by Sam Wang

Julian Zelizer and I interviewed Robert Costa, political reporter for the Washington Post. Costa’s been covering national politics for many years. Last Friday, he was the first person that Donald Trump called to talk about the cancellation of the vote on Affordable Care Act repeal. We got into what it was like to get the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: House · President · Senate