Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

The 2016 Senate Forecast (open comment period)

August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Update, August 30: Commenters are strongly against the use of an expert prior. One reader, Tony Asdourian, writes: “I understand there are competing values– the simplicity of only using polls vs. the need to be as accurate as possible– but to be honest, I think that your “brand” (not that you want one!) revolves around trying [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate update

July 20th, 2016, 3:51pm by Sam Wang

Indiana is updated to be Young (R) vs. Bayh (D). Bayh is a massive favorite, and his entry into the race pushes the overall Senate snapshot to a median of 50-50.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

The party conventions begin

July 18th, 2016, 8:01am by Sam Wang

The Republican Party’s national convention starts today [schedule]. Conventions are a chance for a political party to showcase their unity, their candidate, and their policies. Next week the Democrats take the national stage. Viewers will get a fairly direct contrast. As measured via state polls, the Presidential race shows Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of where [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics and Polls: a podcast with Julian Zelizer

July 1st, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s a new collaboration with Julian Zelizer over in History. The first episode, produced by the Woodrow Wilson school, is posted here, as well as on iTunes. Topics include: is a 1964-like landslide possible this year? Does Brexit teach us anything about the Trump phenomenon? Does The Party Decide on nominees? Is a realignment of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Slow news month ahead?

March 26th, 2016, 1:03pm by Sam Wang

I’m on a low-posting regimen for a little while. Basically, I think the Democratic and GOP primaries are settled. That said, why don’t you comment on which of the following would be most interesting:

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

On the passing of Justice Scalia and this year’s voting rights cases

February 14th, 2016, 10:04am by Sam Wang

An underappreciated fact about the U.S. Supreme Court is just how often its decisions are unanimous, or nearly so. In past years, the two justices who disagreed the most often were Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Samuel Alito – and even then, they only disagreed about one-third of the time. Above is a visualization of “disagreement [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Exceptionally Low Turnout Can Account For Polling Errors

November 10th, 2014, 9:26am by Sam Wang

At The American Prospect: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The American Prospect, I detail how this year’s polling errors are correlated with voter turnout, which was the lowest since 1942, as based on Michael McDonald’s tabulation [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

The Midterm Polling Curse (Morning-after edition)

November 5th, 2014, 11:41am by Sam Wang

Pre-election PEC Senate aggregate: 52 Republican seats. Outcome: 52 or more Republican seats (Alaska is not called, and Louisiana goes to a runoff). As I wrote in The New Republic, last night’s performance by the GOP was remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 5.3 percentage points. Prime examples of [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate