Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Slow news month ahead?

March 26th, 2016, 1:03pm by Sam Wang

I’m on a low-posting regimen for a little while. Basically, I think the Democratic and GOP primaries are settled. That said, why don’t you comment on which of the following would be most interesting:

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

On the passing of Justice Scalia and this year’s voting rights cases

February 14th, 2016, 10:04am by Sam Wang

An underappreciated fact about the U.S. Supreme Court is just how often its decisions are unanimous, or nearly so. In past years, the two justices who disagreed the most often were Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Samuel Alito – and even then, they only disagreed about one-third of the time. Above is a visualization of “disagreement [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Exceptionally Low Turnout Can Account For Polling Errors

November 10th, 2014, 9:26am by Sam Wang

At The American Prospect: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The American Prospect, I detail how this year’s polling errors are correlated with voter turnout, which was the lowest since 1942, as based on Michael McDonald’s tabulation [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

The Midterm Polling Curse (Morning-after edition)

November 5th, 2014, 11:41am by Sam Wang

Pre-election PEC Senate aggregate: 52 Republican seats. Outcome: 52 or more Republican seats (Alaska is not called, and Louisiana goes to a runoff). As I wrote in The New Republic, last night’s performance by the GOP was remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 5.3 percentage points. Prime examples of [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Errors Are Inevitable – But Who Will Benefit?

November 4th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Despite the certainty of pundits, we actually don’t know who will win the Senate! In The New Yorker, I explain. From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Geek’s Guide To The Election, 2014 edition

November 4th, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Download it! It includes instructions for estimating Delta. Liveblogging will start around 8:00pm. Useful links (will add as day goes on): HuffPollster: Senate Election Live-Tracker. DailyKos Elections, hour-by-hour guide. New York Times, The Upshot, Senate tracker.

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Senate and House final snapshots, 2014

November 4th, 2014, 1:54am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Here are final polling snapshots for Senate races: Put your own predictions in comments! Some more notes…

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Reality check: Obama net approval/disapproval

November 3rd, 2014, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

Coming into the home stretch, President Obama’s net approval/disapproval rating is at minus 8%. Not good…but 4% better than June. This is what candidates face as in-person voting starts tomorrow morning.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

Hidden errors, overconfident pollsters?

November 3rd, 2014, 10:05am by Sam Wang

I am thinking about how to get the most accurate last-minute snapshots of races, and how to turn that into a scorecard for you (and me) to use on Election Night. I’m also thinking about Brier scores as a means of evaluating the various prognosticators, including me. In the meantime, here’s your morning reading: an [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Late Breaks and Polling Biases

November 2nd, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

I got into poll aggregation in 2004 to reduce endless chatter about outlier polls. Hmmm, how’d that work out… — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 2, 2014 At least one journalist is chattering about whether there’s a late break in polls for Republicans…based on one data point, which is probably statistical noise. Some people are hopeless. [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate