Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Politics & Polls #37: a chat with Robert Costa

March 30th, 2017, 10:06am by Sam Wang

Julian Zelizer and I interviewed Robert Costa, political reporter for the Washington Post. Costa’s been covering national politics for many years. Last Friday, he was the first person that Donald Trump called to talk about the cancellation of the vote on Affordable Care Act repeal. We got into what it was like to get the [...]

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Tags: House · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #26: Indivisible!

January 12th, 2017, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Since the election, Democrats have struggled with how to respond to a Donald Trump presidency. But one group is starting to get some traction – the authors of an online guide that is going viral: “Indivisible: A Practical Guide for Resisting the Trump Agenda.” In episode #26 of Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Senate · U.S. Institutions

Constitutional Hardball: Can Senate Democrats Confirm Merrick Garland on January 3rd?

December 25th, 2016, 11:25pm by Sam Wang

On the New York Times opinion page, the editors suggest (“The Stolen Supreme Court Seat,” December 24th) that President-elect Donald Trump could nominate President Obama’s choice, Judge Merrick Garland, as a gesture of goodwill. I myself suggested this on CNN last month (that was the point, you guys, not the bug – go watch). This [...]

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Tags: Politics · Senate

Election liveblog thread #1

November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang

I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

November 8th, 2016, 12:45am by Sam Wang

(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.) Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. Soon I’ll put out a brief [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

Today on The Takeaway: The Home Stretch

November 7th, 2016, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Today on The Takeaway with host John Hockenberry: How certain is the Presidential race? What about the Senate? Who picks the bug? The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern (I’m scheduled at 30-40 minutes after the hour). Find a radio station near you, stream at, or listen to the segment [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

All estimates point toward HRC>50% probability. What determines the exact number?

November 6th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang

Three sets of data point in the same direction: The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%. National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later). Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%. Based on this [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

The Nevada bonus is back

November 6th, 2016, 10:17am by Sam Wang

Two states are hard to poll accurately, probably because they have high rates of migration: Alaska and Nevada. In addition, Nevada has a high Hispanic population, which votes heavily Democratic. Based on early voting, it looks like 2016 will be a repeat of 2010 and 2012, in which Democrats outperformed Nevada polls by 10 and 3 [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Beyoncé and Me

November 5th, 2016, 5:56am by Sam Wang

Well, this was unexpected. The clip is here.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Sound bites and bug bites

November 4th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug. — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 19, 2016 We’re entering a period when all the math and data gets converted to short quotes. The above quote is pre-Comey, but I will live with it. I have some interviews [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate