Thanks for your feedback. The comment thread from the previous post clarified my thinking. Drew Linzer dropped in! Also, welcome to Rachel Maddow viewers! The banner at the top of the page gives the poll-based “snapshot probability” for who would end up controlling the Senate based on an election held today. Based on PEC’s track [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Senate'
August 28th, 2014, 9:42am by Sam Wang
[Note: this is a work in progress. I'm basically seeking comment as I develop a November predictive model. Please give your feedback... -Sam] I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. [...]
August 27th, 2014, 2:36pm by Sam Wang
Normally, both Kansas Senate seats are deep red: one’s been Republican since Franklin Roosevelt was President, and the other one dates back to Woodrow Wilson. So it’s not surprising that even though incumbent Senator Pat Roberts has an abysmal 27% job approval rating, polls indicate that he would still beat his Democratic opponent, Chad Taylor. [...]
August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!
August 4th, 2014, 2:35pm by Sam Wang
Some people are excited (positively or negatively) about Nate Silver’s column today giving a probability of a GOP takeover at 60%. To cut to the chase: I do not think that number means what you think it does.
July 30th, 2014, 4:33pm by Sam Wang
Of the 36 Senate seats up for election, up to nine of them have been worth watching closely. These races will determine who controls the Senate. Over the last month a few seem to have dropped out of consideration. Now, with a new burst of polling, the playing field – at least for now – [...]
July 23rd, 2014, 11:08am by Sam Wang
Nate Cohn chose today to drop his story on how demographic trends bring Georgia surprisingly within reach for Democrats. I guess that is true, but the timing is funny. The race was close to begin with, and then yesterday’s primary was a boost for the GOP. In my view, that is the real story. Like [...]
July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]
July 14th, 2014, 4:22pm by Sam Wang
Here (in beta-test version) is the Senate polling snapshot for this year so far.
July 12th, 2014, 10:06am by Sam Wang
Greetings, everyone. This is for hardcore readers. I’m going to dispense with bells and whistles. We’re building things, so I’m not very chatty! I just thought I’d show you where things are at. Bottom line, Democrats have a 55% chance of control in an election held today. That is as close to a toss-up as [...]