Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

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Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Optimal Donations, 2018 (Runoff Edition)

November 24th, 2018, 8:42am by Sam Wang

Election season’s not quite over. We have two high-profile runoffs, one for Georgia Secretary of State and one for Mississippi U.S. Senate. In both cases, no candidate reached 50%, as required by state law there. Both races are highly consequential. Therefore the thermometer at left has been updated. The Georgia Secretary of State race goes […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election · Senate

Electoral maps based on 2018 results

November 7th, 2018, 12:28pm by Sam Wang

(revised Friday November 9th to correct an error in Maine Senate) The election turned out approximately as expected from advance information, a narrowly-Democratic House and a Republican Senate. I thought it might be good to look at the results from the perspective of 2020.

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

What you’re voting for today

November 6th, 2018, 8:22am by Sam Wang

You’re voting, right? Check your poll location and closing time. And you donated [PEC’s high-leverage picks] [NRSC]. And now, on Election Day, three cheers to those of you who are getting out the vote. Good luck – your country needs you! In addition to the House (final snapshot here) and Senate (final snapshot here, post-Kavanaugh […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · U.S. Institutions

In late Senate polls, a small signal – or noise?

November 5th, 2018, 8:56pm by Sam Wang

I assume you’ve all been getting out the vote. And donating to one of the organizations in the left sidebar. Maybe you’ve even voted already! OK, now let us take stock of late-breaking developments, which are a little unexpected. All season I’ve thought that Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) wouldn’t come close to unseating Senator Ted Cruz […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?

November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate

Why You Should Vote: Red States, Blue Priorities

November 4th, 2018, 9:42am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) Progressive policies are more popular than progressive candidates. Red-state candidates who advocate for increases in the minimum wage and Medicaid expansion lose to opponents, who tar them as liberals. Yet surveys show large bipartisan majorities in favor of these same policies. This is a testament to how well […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Health · House · Senate

Senate outlook: 45-50 Democratic/Independent seats (median=47)

November 2nd, 2018, 10:47am by Sam Wang

If systematic polling error is no larger than past midterm elections (median of 3 percentage points, as high as 5 points), control of the Senate appears to be a difficult lift for the Democrats. The polling error would have to be at least 5.0 points (that’s how the Meta-Margin is defined). They have a much […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Politics & Polls: Year Of The Woman, 2018 – and North Carolina

October 28th, 2018, 7:30pm by Sam Wang

This Politics & Polls is a pre-midterms double-header, on women and on North Carolina. This year, a record number of women candidates are running for federal office. Where did this come from, and how many of them will win? Julian Zelizer and I drill in with Prof. Danielle Thomsen of U.C. Irvine, who’s visiting Princeton […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Optimal 2018 donations in the home stretch: Senate, House, Governor

October 26th, 2018, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Judging from my mail, I think some of you think I am back online making predictions. This is not true! PEC provides aggregation and information to reveal where you can make the most impact. Since almost the start, my reason for operating PEC was to show how such efforts might be optimized. And as I wrote […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Is the Senate Kavanaugh bounce partially ending?

October 24th, 2018, 3:29pm by Sam Wang

People often ask if polls move opinion. Not that many people pay direct attention to the numbers. However, polls do set the tone for what journalists and pundits write…with some delay. Combined with the time it takes to conduct and release a poll, this means that news articles can be a lagging indicator of the […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate