Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

PEC switching (as planned) to short-term forecast

September 30th, 2014, 12:30pm by Sam Wang

As planned for a long time, we’re switching soon to a short-term forecast. As I wrote last month, the Meta-Margin has some predictive value for where it will be within five weeks. The election is in five weeks, so it’s time to start factoring in current conditions. I’m traveling today, so there will be a [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

A change in the air?

September 29th, 2014, 11:58am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Election Consortium’s approach to tracking current conditions has unique advantages, which are sometimes underappreciated and misinterpreted – even by major media figures. The advantages are: (1) We have remarkably low noise compared with a simpler approach such as at Electoral-vote.com or RealClearPolitics; and (2) We have sharper time resolution than other sites that [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Midterm traffic – thank you

September 27th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang

Some of you are asking if the PEC polls-only prediction is wrong. I say no: the prediction is OK…so far. Recall the central assumption: the Meta-Margin range from June through now is representative of the future. Obviously, this week it is on my mind that the assumption won’t hold up. However, we’re only a touch [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Alaska and Colorado on the move

September 26th, 2014, 3:57pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Margin is a powerful statistical measure. It collects all available polls into a simple index that tracks movement in the national campaign. No house effects, no fancy stuff – just a measure of national opinion, calibrated using Senate control to define the zero point. Recall that the Senate Meta-Margin is defined by how much [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Brief update

September 26th, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

In CO-Sen, three good polls in a row for Gardner (R). That must have been some debate http://t.co/SF4cKWWVoe — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) September 22, 2014 In current polling conditions, the Senate Meta-Margin has left Democratic territory for the first time since mid-August. Not much to say about that for now, except that the sharp movement [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

What’s The Real Source Of Inaccuracy In Alaska?

September 25th, 2014, 5:30pm by Sam Wang

On Tuesday, I suggested that control of the Senate could come down to as few as four key races in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and Arkansas. There’s a fifth state where voters are exceptionally powerful: Alaska, because of the closeness of the race and its small population. But even though get-out-the-vote efforts in Alaska are certain [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

A change to the banner

September 24th, 2014, 12:01pm by Sam Wang

We’re trying out a change in the banner above. Previously, we showed a snapshot, i.e. what would happen in an election held today. Now, the only probability given is for Election Day. Why are we doing this? The basic reason is that the election is not today. The day-to-day snapshot is extremely important because we [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

And Then There Were Four (or Five?)

September 23rd, 2014, 1:06pm by Sam Wang

In the last few days the Meta-Margin’s been bouncing around. It’s a snapshot of current conditions, and will probably keep moving up and down. That bounciness – so vexing to some of you! – is part of how I am sampling day-to-day variation. This is the principal input to our predictive model for the November [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

Weekend Nerdery (Basic level, part 1): Make Your Own Senate Prediction!

September 20th, 2014, 11:15am by Sam Wang

Some of you may think that analyzing polls is some kind of wizardry. It’s not. This is the first of a few Basic posts. I’ll have Advanced posts too for extreme PEC aficionados. As always, I reserve the opportunity to make minor corrections.

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate Conditions Are Back To September 3

September 19th, 2014, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

As of today, conditions in the battle for Senate control are just about back to where they were on the day after the shake-up in the Kansas Senate race. Using polls alone in a 2-3 week window (see right sidebar), current medians show the following key margins: Alaska D+5%, Colorado D+2%, Iowa D+0.5%, North Carolina [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate