I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Senate'
November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang
November 8th, 2016, 12:45am by Sam Wang
(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.) Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. Soon I’ll put out a brief [...]
November 7th, 2016, 8:33am by Sam Wang
Today on The Takeaway with host John Hockenberry: How certain is the Presidential race? What about the Senate? Who picks the bug? The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern (I’m scheduled at 30-40 minutes after the hour). Find a radio station near you, stream at thetakeaway.org, or listen to the segment [...]
November 6th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang
Three sets of data point in the same direction: The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%. National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later). Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%. Based on this [...]
November 6th, 2016, 10:17am by Sam Wang
Two states are hard to poll accurately, probably because they have high rates of migration: Alaska and Nevada. In addition, Nevada has a high Hispanic population, which votes heavily Democratic. Based on early voting, it looks like 2016 will be a repeat of 2010 and 2012, in which Democrats outperformed Nevada polls by 10 and 3 [...]
November 5th, 2016, 5:56am by Sam Wang
Well, this was unexpected. The clip is here.
November 4th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang
It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug. https://t.co/3eefhWzI3y — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 19, 2016 We’re entering a period when all the math and data gets converted to short quotes. The above quote is pre-Comey, but I will live with it. I have some interviews [...]
November 3rd, 2016, 8:00pm by Sam Wang
So, Julian Zelizer and I had an e-chat about next Tuesday on CNN Digital. Mostly themes you know!
November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang
In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.
November 3rd, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang
The PEC calculation relies on state-level polls, which take time to come in. But by now the Meta-Analysis is current: of the top ten states listed in The Power Of One Voter, nearly all polls are post-Comey. The exceptions are Iowa and Michigan. Michigan is vexing because of one oddball survey taken over a two-month [...]