Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Senate'
November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang
November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang
We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]
November 6th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang
Briefly, my predictions are President: (mode) Obama 332, Romney 206 EV, (median) Obama 309, Romney 229 EV. Two-candidate popular vote: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. House: Democrats win 2-22 seats. D 205+/-10, R 230+/-10 seats, Republicans retain control. Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. More on [...]
October 31st, 2012, 10:25pm by Sam Wang
(original version published on temporary server) Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-55 seats (middle 50% of outcomes) – a change of zero to +2 seats for the Democrats.
October 28th, 2012, 5:00pm by Sam Wang
Last month (“Using predictions in the service of ideals and profit,” Sept. 23) I asked what makes a good prediction. I made an analogy to hurricane forecasting. Predictions should: Be precise, allowing us to pinpoint a narrow range of outcomes. Change relatively little in the long term, giving us time to plan in advance. Give a [...]
October 27th, 2012, 11:15pm by Sam Wang
With nine days left to the national election, many races have fallen into place. Where should activists put their effort and money?
October 22nd, 2012, 10:30am by Sam Wang
Since my last update, the terrain has shifted by about one seat away from Democrats. This may be a coattail effect from the Presidential race. The median outcome is 53 D/I, 47 R (1-sigma confidence interval, 53-54 D/I seats). Retained control by Democrats/Independents is still extremely probable: 98%. The details:
October 13th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang
Up to now, Senate fortunes have tracked the ups and downs of the Presidential race. What about now, after last week’s downturn?
October 8th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang
What’s wrong with Congress? One big answer is the filibuster. Nearly half of the filibuster threats that have ever happened have occurred since the Clinton impeachment – and they are on the rise.
October 5th, 2012, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
The Meta-Analysis, a snapshot of today’s conditions, has taken a remarkably sharp and large downtick for President Obama. This comes with a massive polling release from three Republican-leaning pollsters: Rasmussen, Gravis, and We Ask America. Just think – what are the odds that they would all come out of the gate so fast and all [...]