Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

With Perdue in, Nunn now an underdog (GA-Sen)

July 23rd, 2014, 11:08am by Sam Wang

Nate Cohn chose today to drop his story on how demographic trends bring Georgia surprisingly within reach for Democrats. I guess that is true, but the timing is funny. The race was close to begin with, and then yesterday’s primary was a boost for the GOP. In my view, that is the real story. Like [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?

July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate

Senate control: Three factors to watch in 2014

July 14th, 2014, 4:22pm by Sam Wang

Here (in beta-test version) is the Senate polling snapshot for this year so far.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Beta test: Senate snapshot 12 July 2014

July 12th, 2014, 10:06am by Sam Wang

Greetings, everyone. This is for hardcore readers. I’m going to dispense with bells and whistles. We’re building things, so I’m not very chatty! I just thought I’d show you where things are at. Bottom line, Democrats have a 55% chance of control in an election held today. That is as close to a toss-up as [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Feeding Karl Rove a bug

November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang

Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

After the storm

November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate prediction 2012 (Election Day final)

November 6th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Briefly, my predictions are President: (mode) Obama 332, Romney 206 EV, (median) Obama 309, Romney 229 EV. Two-candidate popular vote: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. House: Democrats win 2-22 seats. D 205+/-10, R 230+/-10 seats, Republicans retain control. Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. More on [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Senate: following Obama back up

October 31st, 2012, 10:25pm by Sam Wang

(original version published on temporary server) Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-55 seats (middle 50% of outcomes) – a change of zero to +2 seats for the Democrats.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

A Presidential/downticket prediction challenge

October 28th, 2012, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

Last month (“Using predictions in the service of ideals and profit,” Sept. 23) I asked what makes a good prediction. I made an analogy to hurricane forecasting. Predictions should: Be precise, allowing us to pinpoint a narrow range of outcomes. Change relatively little in the long term, giving us time to plan in advance. Give a [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Home stretch activism: two Senate races

October 27th, 2012, 11:15pm by Sam Wang

With nine days left to the national election, many races have fallen into place. Where should activists put their effort and money?

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Senate