Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Iowa and Colorado: Is early voting showing up in polls?

October 29th, 2014, 9:43am by Sam Wang

Over at FiveThirtyEight is a new essay saying that there hasn’t been any concerted movement during this campaign season. Broadly, I agree with their objection that journalists and pundits overuse (and thoughtlessly use) the word “momentum.” However, in this case a close look at the data suggests there was strong movement from September through early [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

In State Races, As Much Suspense As 2006 and 2010 Combined

October 26th, 2014, 11:21pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Journalists and pundits have lavished considerable attention on the question of who will control the Senate in 2015. But a broader phenomenon has escaped notice: the sheer number of close state-level races, both in the Senate and in statehouses. At risk are many incumbents who were elected in previous wave years: [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Senate horserace update: what does a Meta-Margin of R+0.4% mean?

October 23rd, 2014, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

Update, Saturday: with two new surveys in Alaska, one showing a tie and the other showing a Begich (D) lead, the predicted Senate Meta-Margin is D+0.0%, a perfect tossup. Statistically this is not different from the minuscule difference yesterday…but it does emphasize how closely fought the battle for control is. To see more, click on [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Sunday 9:45am – on MSNBC’s Up With Steve Kornacki

October 18th, 2014, 7:21pm by Sam Wang

OK, we rescheduled from last week. The topic tomorrow: elections and poll nerdery. The Senate obviously, but perhaps the House and governorships too. Tune in tomorrow! …and, here’s the video. It was fun, fairly substantive, I described the incredible power of Iowa voters compared with my puny vote in New Jersey (at the moment, 1 [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years

October 17th, 2014, 12:49pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He saw no overall bias; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year polling. [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · Senate

The Problem With Polls, or…Are Senate Democrats Really Doomed?

October 15th, 2014, 11:49pm by Sam Wang

TNR essay:Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Here at PEC, the calculations are built on the assumption that on average, polls provide an unbiased measure of eventual Election Day behavior. This assumption is our strength and our Achilles heel, and it is the topic of my new piece at The New Republic. The supporting calculations are here. In the [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Brief notes

October 14th, 2014, 10:36am by Sam Wang

We’ve been experimenting with presenting the probability as a decimal, on the grounds that the false precision of showing the ones-place is misleading. For example, “0.4″ means 40%. However, I’m not seeing a lot of love in comments about this change – a bit of a mixed reaction. Note that the uncertainty (1 sigma) on the [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

MSNBC, Sunday 8:45am with Steve Kornacki

October 11th, 2014, 8:22pm by Sam Wang

On Sunday morning around 8:45am, I’ll be on MSNBC’s Up with Steve Kornacki. Update: Pre-empted by Ebola! On my mind at the moment: In the Senate, recent Iowa polling leaves us with a median of Ernst over Braley by just 0.5±0.8% (8 polls), a dead heat. Also, what’s up with Colorado and South Dakota? Finally, [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Everything is different today…or maybe not!

October 10th, 2014, 9:53am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);At this moment, PEC’s probability of D+I is 49%. Yesterday it was 52%. Obviously everything is different, a volte-face. Right? Um… Only if you don’t have a clear understanding of uncertainty. This is common among even the most experienced journalists [NPR] [WaPo]. It makes the baby Ronald Fisher cry. For a [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

No Wave

October 9th, 2014, 11:35am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Today let’s back up a step, and not focus so much on individual polls, or even single races. A larger picture emerges if we look at recent polls in the Senate and the House, as well as President Obama’s net disapproval rating. Taken in full, polls indicate a continuation of recent [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · President · Senate