Nate Cohn chose today to drop his story on how demographic trends bring Georgia surprisingly within reach for Democrats. I guess that is true, but the timing is funny. The race was close to begin with, and then yesterday’s primary was a boost for the GOP. In my view, that is the real story. Like [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Senate'
July 23rd, 2014, 11:08am by Sam Wang
July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]
July 14th, 2014, 4:22pm by Sam Wang
Here (in beta-test version) is the Senate polling snapshot for this year so far.
July 12th, 2014, 10:06am by Sam Wang
Greetings, everyone. This is for hardcore readers. I’m going to dispense with bells and whistles. We’re building things, so I’m not very chatty! I just thought I’d show you where things are at. Bottom line, Democrats have a 55% chance of control in an election held today. That is as close to a toss-up as [...]
November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang
Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]
November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang
We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]
November 6th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang
Briefly, my predictions are President: (mode) Obama 332, Romney 206 EV, (median) Obama 309, Romney 229 EV. Two-candidate popular vote: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. House: Democrats win 2-22 seats. D 205+/-10, R 230+/-10 seats, Republicans retain control. Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. More on [...]
October 31st, 2012, 10:25pm by Sam Wang
(original version published on temporary server) Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-55 seats (middle 50% of outcomes) – a change of zero to +2 seats for the Democrats.
October 28th, 2012, 5:00pm by Sam Wang
Last month (“Using predictions in the service of ideals and profit,” Sept. 23) I asked what makes a good prediction. I made an analogy to hurricane forecasting. Predictions should: Be precise, allowing us to pinpoint a narrow range of outcomes. Change relatively little in the long term, giving us time to plan in advance. Give a [...]