Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Weekend Nerdery (Basic level, part 1): Make Your Own Senate Prediction!

September 20th, 2014, 11:15am by Sam Wang

Some of you may think that analyzing polls is some kind of wizardry. It’s not. This is the first of a few Basic posts. I’ll have Advanced posts too for extreme PEC aficionados. As always, I reserve the opportunity to make minor corrections.

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate Conditions Are Back To September 3

September 19th, 2014, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

As of today, conditions in the battle for Senate control are just about back to where they were on the day after the shake-up in the Kansas Senate race. Using polls alone in a 2-3 week window (see right sidebar), current medians show the following key margins: Alaska D+5%, Colorado D+2%, Iowa D+0.5%, North Carolina [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

How Our Predictions Work (continued)

September 18th, 2014, 7:20am by Sam Wang

If you don’t know anything about the feud between @NateSilver538 and @SamWangPhD, you know how this non-sports fan feels all the time. — Robert D Sullivan (@RobertDSullivan) September 17, 2014 Mr. Sullivan, this post is for you. Even though Nate Silver has misinterpreted what PEC did in 2010 as representing how we operate today, I [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Meanwhile, in real news…

September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang

1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

How Our Prediction *Really* Works

September 17th, 2014, 11:10am by Sam Wang

I hear that the Princeton Election Consortium calculation has come under criticism for being statistically overconfident. I think there is confusion here, which requires a little explanation – and an appreciation for what I’ve learned since I started doing this in 2004. Basically, after 2012, any predictive calculation started to build in Election Day uncertainty. [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Monday morning – Senate steady, House on the move

September 15th, 2014, 9:09am by Sam Wang

Good morning! From a polling standpoint, there was little genuine news over the weekend. However, other sites are moving toward the Princeton Election Consortium estimate. There are several likely reasons.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

Today on the Brian Lehrer Show: 11:10 am, WNYC 93.9 FM

September 12th, 2014, 8:55am by Sam Wang

This morning I’ll be on with Brian Lehrer to talk about poll math, the suspenseful Senate race, and when to accept a bet. Tune in! [Update 11:23am: that was fun. However, I just found out that Silver claimed that at PEC we use "arbitrary assumptions." OK, that is an out-and-out falsehood. We use polls only [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate 2014 Election Day Model (geeky version)

September 9th, 2014, 6:20pm by Sam Wang

[Today I wrote about the forecast at The New Yorker. Below, the math... - Sam] The Election Day prediction for Senate control is now fully live. There are parts that may require further tinkering, especially concerning how the results are displayed. But it’s basically in place. Those of you who followed PEC in 2012 will [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Is Nate Silver a little too excited about his model?

September 9th, 2014, 7:06am by Sam Wang

“I would like to place a large wager against that guy…” says @NateSilver538 of @SamWangPhD‘s projection, which heavily favors Dems. — Brian Lehrer Show (@BrianLehrer) September 8, 2014 I guess when you’re the King of the Nerds, you have to be willing to engage in a little trash talk. I think this is a good [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

A quick note on the PEC Senate model

September 4th, 2014, 9:06pm by Sam Wang

[Update, Friday 1:00pm: The Election Day prediction now takes into account the new Kansas Senate race, scoring it as a tie.] Welcome, new readers! Washington Post, Reddit, Krugman readers…great to see you all. I just wanted to make a few quick notes to orient everyone as to what’s going on here at PEC. We’re a bit [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate