Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Redistricting'

The effect of gerrymandering in four states exceeds that of population clustering in all 50 states

December 8th, 2015, 7:00am by Sam Wang

My New York Times piece was specifically focused on the legal question of what a party-neutral standard should look like. It didn’t address the political question: where do such deviations come from? As it turns out, the answer is: post-2010, partisan redistricting accounts for more than half of the total asymmetry in the House. The [...]

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Tags: Redistricting

Can Math Help Save Democracy?

December 5th, 2015, 10:41am by Sam Wang

In the New York Times I have a piece in the Sunday Review, “Let Math Save Our Democracy.” It describes some simple statistical standards for partisan gerrymandering, and how they might resolve an upcoming Supreme Court case (Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission) quickly and definitively. It’s based on my law article, “A Three-Prong Standard for [...]

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Tags: Redistricting

Redistricting battles everywhere

December 4th, 2015, 10:27pm by Sam Wang

Bloomberg Politics has an excellent interactive on redistricting battles (ht/ to reader bks). While we’re on the topic, make sure to read the New York Times this weekend. I have a piece on gerrymandering standards in the Sunday Review section. Other entertainment: here’s a cool general-election demographic simulator by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Redistricting

Two Cheers for Ohio Redistricting Reform

November 4th, 2015, 10:16am by Sam Wang

Yesterday, Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved Issue 1, an initiative that sets up a bipartisan commission to oversee redistricting of state legislative districts. This is a great step in combating gerrymandering. However, there are some fine points that have to be resolved for it to work well.

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Tags: Redistricting

Offering a new standard for gerrymandering to the Supreme Court

November 2nd, 2015, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // Today, I filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission case (S. Ct. 14-232). The brief can be found here (for a summary of other briefs, see the Arizona Eagletarian blog). In it, I argue that the Supreme Court should reject Harris’s case on the grounds that there was [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

A Three-Prong Standard for Partisan Gerrymandering

October 8th, 2015, 11:25pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // In Davis v. Bandemer and Vieth v. Jubelirer, the Supreme Court has held that partisan gerrymandering is justiciable (i.e. within their scope to regulate), but that a manageable standard does not, in their view, yet exist. Here is a draft of my paper on how to define such a standard. Prong #1 is [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

Gerrymandering theorems

October 7th, 2015, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

To me, today’s news that Gallup is sitting out the primaries, and maybe even the general election, is not all that notable. The primaries are a hard-to-poll question; any race with more than two candidates seems to have issues (see the UK and Israel as examples). And the general election? It’s such a well-populated space, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

SCOTUS Upholds Arizona Redistricting Commission

June 29th, 2015, 11:17am by Sam Wang

Tweet SCOTUS redistricting: FantasySCOTUS market 5-4 for AZ legislature…but top 3 forecasters predict 5-4 the other way — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) June 29, 2015 Update, 10:05pm: At Slate, Mark Joseph Stern thinks this case might be seen someday as the most important one of this Supreme Court term. I agree with him. -Sam This [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Redistricting

Slaying the gerrymander

February 3rd, 2013, 8:21am by Sam Wang

(Welcome, New York Times readers!) Thanks to commenters on this topic. Your feedback has shaped my thinking on this subject. I recall being skeptical that redistricting could have a major effect. As it turns out, the effects of partisan redistricting helped Republicans far more than I expected. One reason for my skepticism is that the [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Redistricting