Princeton Election Consortium

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been [...]

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Other than polls, focus groups, betting markets, financial markets, and downcast supporters, everything points to a big Trump win — James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) September 27, 2016 I have little to say about last night’s debate, except to point out that based on polls of undecided and independent voters, Clinton was seen as scoring a convincing [...]

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A few days ago, the state-poll-based Meta-Analysis reached an extreme value of Clinton +1.4%. It has turned around, and today went to Clinton +2.4%. I don’t know if this turnaround will continue…but note that this is a pre-debate bounce. Get your panic on.

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Polls are likely to move after the debate. It is the moment when voters get to make a direct, side-by-side comparison of the two candidates. This may also be the last time for any significant shift in the race. Both before and after the debate, pundits will emit opinions about “expectations.” This commentary does not [...]

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A bit strange.

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The first debate is Monday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. from Hofstra University in New York. This first debate could be the most-viewed in our history. (update: yup.) How might these debates influence voters? With presidential polls more favorable to Trump than their average for 2016, which way will they move afterward? Julian Zelizer and [...]

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In today’s 50-state release of data by Ipsos/Reuters, some have commented on the fact that some individual state results are not convincing. I take a different view: having so many data points at once is a gift.

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In 2008, conservative email and websites propagated the false belief that Barack Obama came from somewhere other than his birthplace of Hawaii. In the New York Times in 2008, Sandra Aamodt and I addressed the neuroscience of why people came to adopt this belief. Now that Donald Trump is attempting to hide his five-year involvement [...]

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On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview Rebecca Traister, whose profile of Hillary Clinton for New York magazine is the best profile of Clinton I have read this year. Traister is the author of All The Single Ladies: Unmarried Women and the Rise of an Independent Nation. Listen to [...]

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It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out. National polls currently show [...]

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