As we have done since 2004, we are taking a polls-only approach to give a daily snapshot of the race – as well as a November prediction. This approach has an effective precision of a few tenths of a percentage point of public opinion, and performs very well as both a tracker and a forecast. [...]
Entries Tagged as 'President'
June 30th, 2016, 9:13am by Sam Wang
June 29th, 2016, 12:24pm by Sam Wang
Continuing statistical malpractice at @thehill. Clinton-over-Trump median is holding fairly steady around 5-7%. https://t.co/VoIKMiSkDZ — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) June 26, 2016 On most news days this month, there has been some pointless story about a single poll. Journalists’ instincts to report on the exceptional event are totally inappropriate for following polls, where the median result [...]
June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang
Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.
June 2nd, 2016, 3:35am by Sam Wang
With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting [...]
May 31st, 2016, 10:32am by Sam Wang
Thanks to Brad DeLong, who has collected some of my oldies from January 2016. Back then, I outlined how polling data and Republican party rules pointed clearly toward a Trump nomination. Here at PEC we are ramping up slowly. In the top banner is a preview of the main product: a snapshot of state polls. [...]
May 25th, 2016, 9:57am by Sam Wang
In the New York Times, an article about the Republican Party considering changes to its nomination rules process to eliminate “chaos,” which I think is a code word for “Trump.” However, my quick scan does not reveal any proposed changes that would solve their Trump problem. As I wrote last July in The New Republic, [...]
May 22nd, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang
Tuesday 5/24, 8:20am: in the comments, an interesting discussion here. Every election is different from every other! Every poll must be reported as a unique game-changing event!! Or… https://t.co/xFSUXpn5mR — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) May 22, 2016 Some media types are going around with their hair on fire over two unfavorable polls for Hillary Clinton in [...]
May 18th, 2016, 1:09pm by Sam Wang
I think journalists have missed the point about Nate Silver’s error. Since Silver personifies data analysis, it is easy to get mixed up about what failed. As I wrote last week, the data didn’t fail – clear signs pointed toward Trump for a long time. However, Silver went beyond the data – in his words, [...]
May 9th, 2016, 8:22pm by Sam Wang
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com Historically from 1952 to 2012, the likely range of movement in two-candidate margin from this time until Election Day has been 10 percentage points, which is the standard deviation from the 16 past elections. Therefore, even though Clinton currently leads by a median margin of [...]
Among Republicans, Trump supporters have slightly lower incomes. But what really differentiates them?
May 7th, 2016, 1:39pm by Sam Wang
First, the news clips. At The New Yorker, John Cassidy digs further into the question of data journalism vs. data punditry, and cites PEC favorably. He thinks data journalism is at its best when it isn’t trying to make predictions, but helps us understand what is happening now. I mostly agree with that, though I [...]