Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

The polls are always bouncing to the left and to the right

July 25th, 2016, 9:30am by Sam Wang

For those of you not into adolescent pop culture of the 1970s, today’s post is explained at the bottom. Over the weekend come several polls that measure a post-convention bounce for Presidential candidate Donald Trump (R). Battleground states surveyed by YouGov show a 2-percentage-point increase for him from 40% to 42%, against an unchanging 41% [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics And Polls #4: An Unconventional Convention

July 21st, 2016, 6:34pm by Sam Wang

Politics & Polls #4 (podcast): in which Julian Zelizer and I chew over the convention’s role in shaping the race. Bonus overtime minute: Sam suddenly realizes how the Cruz/Trump smackdown is basically wrestling theater (be sure to click – must-reads from Washington Monthly and Balloon Juice).  Guess who’s the heel? (hint: not Trump.) [Politics & Polls on [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Paths of Glory

July 19th, 2016, 10:27pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, New York Times readers! Josh Katz unveils The Upshot’s model for the November election – complete with comparison to other sites: electronic bidders (PredictWise), polls-only (FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton Election Consortium), and professional prognosticators (Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato). Qualitatively, PEC and The Upshot mostly agree, though PEC shows less confidence in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The party conventions begin

July 18th, 2016, 8:01am by Sam Wang

The Republican Party’s national convention starts today [schedule]. Conventions are a chance for a political party to showcase their unity, their candidate, and their policies. Next week the Democrats take the national stage. Viewers will get a fairly direct contrast. As measured via state polls, the Presidential race shows Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of where [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

FOO (freakouts over outliers)

July 15th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

A CBS/NYT poll released yesterday indicated a 40-40 tie between Clinton and Trump. Cue media freakout. This illustrates the point that news organizations habitually report on outlier events, a bad move when it comes to data points when other data points are available. Four other surveys with mostly overlapping dates show Clinton +1% (Morning Consult), YouGov/Economist [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics and Polls #3: A Referendum on the Incumbent Party?

July 14th, 2016, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

In Politics & Polls #3 (podcast), Julian Zelizer and I talk about the extent to which the election is a referendum on the governing party…and who that might benefit. Courtesy of the Woodrow Wilson School. [Politics & Polls on iTunes] [on SoundCloud]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

What is fascism?

July 13th, 2016, 8:31am by Sam Wang

We have a few weeks of waiting to see where polls are headed. I expect many undeclared voters to choose up sides after the conventions. In the meantime, the political theater is a more riveting story. Not necessarily in a good way. For those who take the long view, Umberto Eco’s essay defining “Ur-Fascism” is [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

Technical Article Of The Day

July 11th, 2016, 9:55pm by Sam Wang

New in Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), a review of the national and state-level impacts of the Affordable Care Act…by Barack Obama, J.D.! I guess everyone can use a boost to the ol’ C.V. Seriously, though, I believe that makes him the first President to publish in a peer-reviewed journal (with two formal [...]

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Tags: Health · President

Politics and Polls #2: Does the VP Pick Still Matter?

July 8th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

In the second segment of Politics and Polls, Julian Zelizer and I discuss what the vice-presidential pick might accomplish for the candidates. Courtesy of the Woodrow Wilson School. [Politics & Polls on iTunes]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Can Trump bring undecideds home?

July 7th, 2016, 9:05am by Sam Wang

The look on the Trumps faces as they watched Cruz’s speech pic.twitter.com/0FoGaoM9Xp — Jon Passantino (@passantino) July 21, 2016 July 20, 11:44pm: In light of tonight’s RNC speech by Ted Cruz, in which he pointedly did not endorse Donald Trump, it seems appropriate to revive this post from last week. Trump’s biggest deficit is lack [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President