Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Nomination rules and November nerdery at the NYT

May 25th, 2016, 9:57am by Sam Wang

In the New York Times, an article about the Republican Party considering changes to its nomination rules process to eliminate “chaos,” which I think is a code word for “Trump.” However, my quick scan does not reveal any proposed changes that would solve their Trump problem. As I wrote last July in The New Republic, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

February national polls are the best you get until August

May 22nd, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Tuesday 5/24, 8:20am: in the comments, an interesting discussion here. Every election is different from every other! Every poll must be reported as a unique game-changing event!! Or… https://t.co/xFSUXpn5mR — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) May 22, 2016 Some media types are going around with their hair on fire over two unfavorable polls for Hillary Clinton in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Nate Silver mostly puts his finger on what happened

May 18th, 2016, 1:09pm by Sam Wang

I think journalists have missed the point about Nate Silver’s error. Since Silver personifies data analysis, it is easy to get mixed up about what failed. As I wrote last week, the data didn’t fail – clear signs pointed toward Trump for a long time. However, Silver went beyond the data – in his words, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Trump expands the battleground…to Utah and the Deep South

May 9th, 2016, 8:22pm by Sam Wang

  Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com Historically from 1952 to 2012, the likely range of movement in two-candidate margin from this time until Election Day has been 10 percentage points, which is the standard deviation from the 16 past elections. Therefore, even though Clinton currently leads by a median margin of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Among Republicans, Trump supporters have slightly lower incomes. But what really differentiates them?

May 7th, 2016, 1:39pm by Sam Wang

First, the news clips. At The New Yorker, John Cassidy digs further into the question of data journalism vs. data punditry, and cites PEC favorably. He thinks data journalism is at its best when it isn’t trying to make predictions, but helps us understand what is happening now. I mostly agree with that, though I [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

What head-to-head election polls tell us about November

May 1st, 2016, 3:08pm by Sam Wang

Note: I have found a problem with this calculation. The national-poll-based Clinton win probability is closer to 70%. I will have an update and explanation soon. Obama: "Next year someone else will be standing here in this spot, and it's anyone's guess who she will be." #WHCD pic.twitter.com/XVFxZUzKeJ — Huffington Post (@HuffingtonPost) May 1, 2016 [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Indiana may not matter any more

April 28th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, may we have a moratorium on “brokered-convention” articles please? Today I write about the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Trump on a glide path (since mid-March)

April 27th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

The race has been stable for weeks, varying only by factors that are local to each state. Last night’s voting confirmed that – there was nothing new revealed. In terms of voter sentiment, the GOP race has been essentially unchanged since March. How do we know this? Two reasons. The first is that national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

East Coast primaries – open thread

April 26th, 2016, 8:30pm by Sam Wang

Based on polls and border counties (see summary), I expect Donald Trump to get over 85% of all the delegates to be voted upon today. I estimate that he will gain about 150 delegates (43 of these are district-level Pennsylvania delegates, whose rate of faithfulness I estimate to be 0.8). Trump’s total number of delegates [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Google-Wide Association Studies

April 26th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

I will comment on the East Coast primaries at the end of the post. First I will write about something more interesting: Google Correlate! >>> In human genetics there is a form of analysis called a genome-wide association study (“GWAS”). In this kind of analysis, the researcher looks for bits of DNA that show up [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President