Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

The Real Problem With That Chart

April 13th, 2015, 11:03pm by Sam Wang

In today’s dustup between FiveThirtyEight and Vox, the press is missing the point. This is often the case, since most reporters understand mud-throwing better than they understand data. I am not interested in squabbles over whether it is kosher to show someone else’s graphic. That ship sailed ten years ago when blogging got big. See [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2016 Election · President

What do GOP voters want?

January 20th, 2015, 11:50am by Sam Wang

Tweet // In a recent CBS poll, Republican voters were asked who they wanted to see run for President. In terms of the net yes-minus-no percentage, leading the pack were Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. Trailing, but still with net positives were Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson. In negative territory were [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2016 Election · President

An “Obama Unbound” effect – or Viva Obama?

January 2nd, 2015, 1:13pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Since mid-December, President Obama’s net approve/disapprove numbers have shot up. This graph shows the median of the last 21 days of polling. The current level, a net disapproval of only 2%, reflects six pollsters (Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN, ARG, YouGov/Economist, and ABC/Post). These are his highest numbers since early 2013. What [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · President

No Wave

October 9th, 2014, 11:35am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Today let’s back up a step, and not focus so much on individual polls, or even single races. A larger picture emerges if we look at recent polls in the Senate and the House, as well as President Obama’s net disapproval rating. Taken in full, polls indicate a continuation of recent [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · House · President · Senate

Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?

July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate

NYT forgets basic statistics; Bloomberg Businessweek forgets 2012

May 31st, 2013, 11:22pm by Sam Wang

I’ll take a brief break from fluorescent protein design, human genetics, and autism and dive back into the fray.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

A final unskewing

November 12th, 2012, 3:20pm by Sam Wang

Mother Nature is our best teacher and the only one who is always right. – Viktor Hamburger, biologist In yesterday’s Los Angeles Times, several prognosticators (including me) commented on why we were right or wrong. On the wrong side are Colorado researchers Bickers and Berry, who thought that Romney would get 330 electoral votes. Now, [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Feeding Karl Rove a bug

November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang

Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

After the storm

November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Comment thread #1 – and a little live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 7:39pm by Sam Wang

9:34pm. CBS: New Hampshire called for Obama. Erm, election’s probably over. And unskewers are full of it. On the same note: Florida is Obama 50.01%, Romney 49.99% with 81% counted. <0.5% is recount territory (Brennan Center).

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President