Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Indiana may not matter any more

April 28th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, may we have a moratorium on “brokered-convention” articles please? Today I write about the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Trump on a glide path (since mid-March)

April 27th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

The race has been stable for weeks, varying only by factors that are local to each state. Last night’s voting confirmed that – there was nothing new revealed. In terms of voter sentiment, the GOP race has been essentially unchanged since March. How do we know this? Two reasons. The first is that national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

East Coast primaries – open thread

April 26th, 2016, 8:30pm by Sam Wang

Based on polls and border counties (see summary), I expect Donald Trump to get over 85% of all the delegates to be voted upon today. I estimate that he will gain about 150 delegates (43 of these are district-level Pennsylvania delegates, whose rate of faithfulness I estimate to be 0.8). Trump’s total number of delegates [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Google-Wide Association Studies

April 26th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

I will comment on the East Coast primaries at the end of the post. First I will write about something more interesting: Google Correlate! >>> In human genetics there is a form of analysis called a genome-wide association study (“GWAS”). In this kind of analysis, the researcher looks for bits of DNA that show up [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Circular Firing Squad Re-Forms

April 25th, 2016, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

Kasich, asked whom his supporters in Indiana should vote for: “I’ve never told them not to vote for me. They ought to vote for me.” — Thomas Kaplan (@thomaskaplan) April 25, 2016 One day after the announcement of cooperation between Team Cruz and Team Kasich, John Kasich has already gone off script. I question whether [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Who got the better of the Cruz-Kasich deal?

April 24th, 2016, 11:47pm by Sam Wang

Statement from Cruz campaign saying it will focus on IN, clearing path for Kasich in OR and NM; Kasich campaign agrees. All to stop Trump. — Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) April 25, 2016 The main news this week is probably Tuesday’s primaries, when Trump may come close to sweeping Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Pennsylvania’s Delegate Rule: Tempest in a Teapot?

April 24th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

I am chuffed about the initial match between Indiana polls (Trump +7%) and a “demographics-less” prediction based on border counties (also Trump +7%). A second demographics-less method, based on Google Correlate, also performs very well. In the coming weeks, we will see how these two approaches do. I have provided predictions separate from polls. I [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Two independent ways of predicting GOP primaries lead to highly similar forecasts

April 22nd, 2016, 3:15pm by Sam Wang

Today’s update: Trump median 1285 delegates (IQR: 1239-1320). Probability of a pledged majority is 75%. Despite the usual complaints, primary polls do reasonably well when aggregated. To understand a state, it is far worse to have no polls at all. As the joke goes, “That restaurant’s food is terrible. And such small portions!” Unfortunately, we [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

New York thread

April 19th, 2016, 10:16pm by Sam Wang

Trump heading for at least 90 out of 95 delegates. If his 60% vote share holds up, I’ll guess 92. Talk among yourselves… Wednesday 7:30am update: for now, it looks like 90 delegates. Trump got below 50% in 3 districts, therefore losing three delegates. Kasich finished first in one district, leaving 1 delegate for Trump [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

GOP update, pre-New York

April 18th, 2016, 3:59pm by Sam Wang

Tomorrow New York votes. This is a critical race in the Republican primary campaign. Above is a final snapshot, based on polls and voting patterns to date. This calculation gives a median Trump outcome of 1265 pledged delegates (interquartile range or IQR, 1210 to 1305 delegates). The probability of getting 1237 or above is 64%. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President