Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

The incredibly stable 2016 campaign

September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Post-debate pundit spin lives up to its promise

September 28th, 2016, 12:12am by Sam Wang

Other than polls, focus groups, betting markets, financial markets, and downcast supporters, everything points to a big Trump win — James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) September 27, 2016 I have little to say about last night’s debate, except to point out that based on polls of undecided and independent voters, Clinton was seen as scoring a convincing [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

In the eye of a hurricane there is quiet: Clinton/Trump debate thread

September 26th, 2016, 8:15pm by Sam Wang

A few days ago, the state-poll-based Meta-Analysis reached an extreme value of Clinton +1.4%. It has turned around, and today went to Clinton +2.4%. I don’t know if this turnaround will continue…but note that this is a pre-debate bounce. Get your panic on.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Three Reasons To Ignore Debate “Expectations”

September 26th, 2016, 12:15am by Sam Wang

Polls are likely to move after the debate. It is the moment when voters get to make a direct, side-by-side comparison of the two candidates. This may also be the last time for any significant shift in the race. Both before and after the debate, pundits will emit opinions about “expectations.” This commentary does not [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Between Two Ferns: Zach Galifianakis interviews Hillary Clinton

September 23rd, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

A bit strange.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls podcast #12 – How will debates move the race?

September 22nd, 2016, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

The first debate is Monday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. from Hofstra University in New York. This first debate could be the most-viewed in our history. (update: yup.) How might these debates influence voters? With presidential polls more favorable to Trump than their average for 2016, which way will they move afterward? Julian Zelizer and [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Ipsos/Reuters rips off the Band-Aid

September 20th, 2016, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

In today’s 50-state release of data by Ipsos/Reuters, some have commented on the fact that some individual state results are not convincing. I take a different view: having so many data points at once is a gift.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

How Lies Live And Grow In The Brain – 2016 edition

September 20th, 2016, 7:30am by Sam Wang

In 2008, conservative email and websites propagated the false belief that Barack Obama came from somewhere other than his birthplace of Hawaii. In the New York Times in 2008, Sandra Aamodt and I addressed the neuroscience of why people came to adopt this belief. Now that Donald Trump is attempting to hide his five-year involvement [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics And Polls #11: Gender and the Presidency, with Rebecca Traister

September 16th, 2016, 9:39am by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview Rebecca Traister, whose profile of Hillary Clinton for New York magazine is the best profile of Clinton I have read this year. Traister is the author of All The Single Ladies: Unmarried Women and the Rise of an Independent Nation. Listen to [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Sometimes life comes at you fast

September 16th, 2016, 7:15am by Sam Wang

It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out. National polls currently show [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President