Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue: Debate #3

October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang

If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Virtues of the L.A. Times Poll

October 19th, 2016, 9:07am by Sam Wang

Yesterday I visited a journalism class. The question arose of how to interpret the L.A. Times/Dornsife/USC poll, which has been unusually favorable to Donald Trump. I said that polls should be treated the way reporters treat other sources of information: get confirmation from a second source. In the case of polls, find two other sources [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Senate Polls Meandering Toward Presidential Race

October 14th, 2016, 9:27am by Sam Wang

The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day: I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

All The Reasons You Doubt Polls: Motivated Reasoning Strikes Again

October 14th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Weekend At Bernie’s (no, not that Bernie)

October 12th, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang

To the extent that the most statistically stable Presidential race in 65 years can be made to look alive, here it is. Right-click to adjust the looping playback. Animated Median EV I have a question for readers. To me, it is plain that this year’s race is statistically highly stable, i.e. it hasn’t moved up [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Clinton/Trump: Debate #2

October 9th, 2016, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

For tonight’s town-hall debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, what should be the minimum age for watching? — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 9, 2016 My guess is that this will be surprisingly substantive, and less awful than feared. Don’t agree? Think about your fears.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Whitest Swan

October 8th, 2016, 8:35am by Sam Wang

Tweet Probable deeper reason: In the last two weeks, it became clear that there was no chance for Trump to win. At that point, a matter of time. — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 8, 2016 Today’s estimated Clinton win probability is 93%. The Meta-Margin is Clinton +3.3% and the red one-sigma band, indicating the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite

October 7th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable. However, I should point out that the Meta-Margin could go to Clinton +7% and still be consistent with my argument. In The [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · Politics · President

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate