Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

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Entries Tagged as 'President'

Re-electability

February 15th, 2020, 12:47am by Sam Wang

A reader asked the following question in comments: Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically. The answer is that as far as I can tell, basically it doesn’t matter.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Sanders v. Buttigieg?

February 11th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

The New Hampshire primary is coming in as expected from last week’s polls. Like I said Saturday, past patterns suggest that the most likely nominee will be Sanders or Buttigieg. Based on the fact that the past pattern has only been observed across 9 nomination races, the probability of an exception might be around 1 […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Did Iowa turn Biden and Warren into longshots?

February 8th, 2020, 3:09pm by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out three past criteria that have described the eventual nominee of either party. With the New Hampshire primary just three days away, current polls make it look like two people meet all the criteria: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. After the fuss over difficult tabulation in the Iowa caucus, there was […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

How predictive is the Iowa caucus? 2020 edition

February 3rd, 2020, 11:10am by Sam Wang

(Update, Tuesday February 4th 7:45pm: With Iowa returns finally becoming available, it looks like the top four are the same as what I wrote about below. So this post can be read exactly the same – no modification necessary!) (Pardon the mess – we’re under construction. 2020 content coming soon!) National surveys and the Iowa caucus […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Harvard Law School panel on Electoral College

October 19th, 2019, 9:11am by Sam Wang

Great conference today on the Electoral College, hosted by the Harvard Law and Policy Review. An all-star cast – see the schedule! Also livecast here. My slides are available in PDF format here. Some of my marginal notes here.

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2016 Election · 2020 Election · President · U.S. Institutions

Making Every Vote Count: How Would Electoral College Reform Change Campaigns?

October 7th, 2019, 11:12am by Sam Wang

Today I was on a panel with Steve Clemons of The Hill, Amanda Iovino, and Mark Penn on Electoral College reform. Interesting discussion. It was on C-SPAN Radio, and you can watch the full video here on Facebook Live. It may be broadcast on C-SPAN later. A later panel had some excellent guests: Jesse Wegman […]

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Tags: President · U.S. Institutions

Discussing Electoral College bugs at APSA

August 28th, 2019, 6:31am by Sam Wang

Tomorrow at the American Political Science Association meeting, I’ll be on a panel organized by Rick Hasen and Bruce Cain on the Electoral College. My topic: A Bug in Democracy: Mythical and True Flaws in the Electoral College. My draft working paper is here, and slides are here. Co-panelists: Amel Ahmed, Michael Morley, and Ed […]

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Tags: President

Seven Steps Of Boom And (usually) Bust: Harris and Williamson at Step 2…Biden at Step 6?

June 28th, 2019, 12:08am by Sam Wang

So again, not to bang this drum too hard, but this is the thing about search traffic and the like not being a proxy for voter intention. https://t.co/ugJxqzDimO — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) June 28, 2019 In such a crowded field, it’s inevitable that some candidate will get a boomlet. How long does a boomlet last, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Mueller Report Book Club: Volume II, Obstruction of Justice, with Quinta Jurecic

May 17th, 2019, 11:39pm by Sam Wang

…and here’s our podcast on Volume II. Our guest is the incomparable Quinta Jurecic, of Lawfareblog.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · U.S. Institutions

Your weekend book club: The Mueller Report

May 10th, 2019, 9:26am by Sam Wang

Been meaning to pick up that Mueller Report, but gotten a little scare of its heft? Wondering what all the fuss is about? Concerned for your democracy? We have the answer for you! In the latest episode of Politics And Polls, Julian Zelizer launch our book club on the Mueller Report. This week we do […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Princeton · U.S. Institutions