Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?

July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate

NYT forgets basic statistics; Bloomberg Businessweek forgets 2012

May 31st, 2013, 11:22pm by Sam Wang

I’ll take a brief break from fluorescent protein design, human genetics, and autism and dive back into the fray.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

A final unskewing

November 12th, 2012, 3:20pm by Sam Wang

Mother Nature is our best teacher and the only one who is always right. – Viktor Hamburger, biologist In yesterday’s Los Angeles Times, several prognosticators (including me) commented on why we were right or wrong. On the wrong side are Colorado researchers Bickers and Berry, who thought that Romney would get 330 electoral votes. Now, [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Feeding Karl Rove a bug

November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang

Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

After the storm

November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Comment thread #1 – and a little live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 7:39pm by Sam Wang

9:34pm. CBS: New Hampshire called for Obama. Erm, election’s probably over. And unskewers are full of it. On the same note: Florida is Obama 50.01%, Romney 49.99% with 81% counted. <0.5% is recount territory (Brennan Center).

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Geek’s Guide to the Election 2012

November 6th, 2012, 5:20pm by Sam Wang

I’ve made a simple guide for tracking the election. It’s at geeks-guide-2012-b.pdf. My two pieces of advice are: Ignore exit polls and large states. Watch New Hampshire (expectation: Obama +3%) (CNN) (electoral-vote.com) I’ll use this post to list some resources. I’ll update this on the fly – check back now and then. Or leave your own [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Presidential prediction 2012 – final

November 6th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

I apologize to all for the late update. We wanted to make sure all the polls were in. And it’s a hectic day. The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Tea leaves: early voting

November 6th, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Early voting has been kicked around as an indicator of how the vote will turn out. It’s not perfect, since it reflects a combination of opinion, voter intensity, and maybe get-out-the-vote efforts. Still, here are some comparisons, taken from Prof. Michael McDonald’s early voting site at George Mason University. These are the fraction of early [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)

November 6th, 2012, 11:47am by Sam Wang

Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be used – and therefore reduce uncertainty. We’ll have that in a bit. Calculating and double-checking…stand by.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President