Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

I’m joining The American Prospect!

January 17th, 2017, 6:52pm by Sam Wang

I’m pleased to announce that I have agreed to join The American Prospect as a contributing editor. As many of you may know, the Prospect has a history of taking on political writers at the start of their careers: Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, Josh Marshall, Jamelle Bouie, and others. It is an honor to join [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Preventing 2017 America from becoming like 1934 Germany: A watchlist

January 15th, 2017, 7:30am by Sam Wang

What Trump/Russia defenders on the right don’t get: Most Dems would grudgingly accept ANY Republican president not potentially compromised. — Peter Daou (@peterdaou) January 15, 2017 In The New Yorker, Adam Gopnik has an excellent piece pointing out the true threats to U.S. democracy, which transcend partisan concerns. As patriotic Americans, can we recognize these [...]

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Tags: President · U.S. Institutions

Polarization Removes the Ability to Make Distinctions

January 3rd, 2017, 3:25am by Sam Wang

Tweet Bruce Springsteen has questioned Donald Trump’s competence to be president. His opinion is typical of the majority of Americans. How could voters have elected someone who is so widely seen as unready for the job? One answer is that polarization impairs the inclination of voters to act upon such problems. In a Gallup poll [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #23 with Jamelle Bouie on the Democrats’ Response

December 8th, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang

Since Donald Trump’s election, there has been considerable debate about what the Democratic party should do next. While some Democrats argue for an openness to cooperation, others insist there isn’t room for compromise given Trump’s views on race and individual rights. In this episode of Politics & Polls, professors Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang interview [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #22 with Linda Greenhouse: How will a Trump Presidency affect the Supreme Court?

December 4th, 2016, 3:26pm by Sam Wang

A new episode of Politics & Polls: How will a Trump Presidency affect the Supreme Court? And how soon? Julian Zelizer and I talk it over with veteran Supreme Court reporter Linda Greenhouse. Listen!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Looking ahead

November 9th, 2016, 12:53am by Sam Wang

Going into today’s election, many races appeared to be very close: 12 state-level Presidential races were within five percentage points. But the polls were off, massively. And so we face the likelihood of an electoral win by Donald Trump. At the same time, Hillary Clinton appears likely to win the popular vote. The Upshot’s model [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Election liveblog thread #1

November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang

I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Today on The Takeaway: The Home Stretch

November 7th, 2016, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Today on The Takeaway with host John Hockenberry: How certain is the Presidential race? What about the Senate? Who picks the bug? The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern (I’m scheduled at 30-40 minutes after the hour). Find a radio station near you, stream at thetakeaway.org, or listen to the segment [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Is 99% a reasonable probability?

November 6th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang

Three sets of data point in the same direction: The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%. National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later). Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%. Based on this [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Confidence is associated with increased turnout

November 5th, 2016, 10:40pm by Sam Wang

I’m getting mail claiming that when voters are sure their candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. Therefore (these are Democrats writing) I should pipe down. However, this speculation contradicts both human nature and empirical evidence.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President