In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]
Entries Tagged as 'President'
Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?
July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate
NYT forgets basic statistics; Bloomberg Businessweek forgets 2012
May 31st, 2013, 11:22pm by Sam Wang
I’ll take a brief break from fluorescent protein design, human genetics, and autism and dive back into the fray.
Tags: 2012 Election · President
A final unskewing
November 12th, 2012, 3:20pm by Sam Wang
Mother Nature is our best teacher and the only one who is always right. – Viktor Hamburger, biologist In yesterday’s Los Angeles Times, several prognosticators (including me) commented on why we were right or wrong. On the wrong side are Colorado researchers Bickers and Berry, who thought that Romney would get 330 electoral votes. Now, [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Feeding Karl Rove a bug
November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang
Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate
After the storm
November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang
We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate
Comment thread #1 – and a little live blogging
November 6th, 2012, 7:39pm by Sam Wang
9:34pm. CBS: New Hampshire called for Obama. Erm, election’s probably over. And unskewers are full of it. On the same note: Florida is Obama 50.01%, Romney 49.99% with 81% counted. <0.5% is recount territory (Brennan Center).
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Geek’s Guide to the Election 2012
November 6th, 2012, 5:20pm by Sam Wang
I’ve made a simple guide for tracking the election. It’s at geeks-guide-2012-b.pdf. My two pieces of advice are: Ignore exit polls and large states. Watch New Hampshire (expectation: Obama +3%) (CNN) (electoral-vote.com) I’ll use this post to list some resources. I’ll update this on the fly – check back now and then. Or leave your own [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Presidential prediction 2012 – final
November 6th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
I apologize to all for the late update. We wanted to make sure all the polls were in. And it’s a hectic day. The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Tea leaves: early voting
November 6th, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang
Early voting has been kicked around as an indicator of how the vote will turn out. It’s not perfect, since it reflects a combination of opinion, voter intensity, and maybe get-out-the-vote efforts. Still, here are some comparisons, taken from Prof. Michael McDonald’s early voting site at George Mason University. These are the fraction of early [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · President
