Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Sharpening The 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

August 16th, 2016, 5:41pm by Sam Wang

There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude. Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why is the PEC polls-only forecast so stable?

August 3rd, 2016, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

Brad DeLong explains some mechanics of the ESPN/FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: Takes recent past polls to estimate a current state of the race… Estimates an uncertainty of our knowledge of the current state… Projects that that current state of the race will drift away from its current state in some Brownian-motion like process… Calculates the chance [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Rigged?

August 2nd, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Trump to Hannity: "I'm telling you, Nov. 8th, we'd better be careful, because that election is going to be rigged" pic.twitter.com/FwpMeIiOE1 — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) August 2, 2016 Three months before the general election, why would a candidate claim that the election will be rigged? Either to foment unrest afterward, or to claim that he [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Post-Democratic convention bounce: 7 points for Clinton

August 1st, 2016, 8:14am by Sam Wang

So far, four five six pollsters have released national surveys using samples taken after the end of the Democratic National Convention, and have data from the post-RNC period. The median swing is a 7.0 ± 1.1 2.0 2.1 % (± estimated SEM) move toward Hillary Clinton. Here are this year’s bounces, added to the previous [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #5: Courting the Working Class

July 30th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

This week, Democrats invoked patriotism, diversity, and strength at their convention. They also made an explicit play for people who typically vote Republican. Among these are white working-class voters. In this week’s Politics and Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what these voters might want. [WWS] [iTunes] [SoundCloud]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

A Local Experiment In Crowd Wisdom

July 29th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

(updated 10:10pm) I have finally converted my statistical politics hobby into material gain. Here at Princeton, the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics has announced the winners of its quadrennial election-prediction contest, a game that is open to CSDP and the Princeton community more broadly. Late in 2015, they put out an open call. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Obama’s convention speech

July 28th, 2016, 2:25pm by Sam Wang

Text just now from a senior House Republican who gave me permission to tweet this: “We were supposed to make that sort of speech." — Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) July 28, 2016 In case you missed it, it’s here. A must-watch speech for members of either party. President Obama is appealing to patriotism and love of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics · President