Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Looking ahead

November 9th, 2016, 12:53am by Sam Wang

Going into today’s election, many races appeared to be very close: 12 state-level Presidential races were within five percentage points. But the polls were off, massively. And so we face the likelihood of an electoral win by Donald Trump. At the same time, Hillary Clinton appears likely to win the popular vote. The Upshot’s model [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Election liveblog thread #1

November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang

I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Today on The Takeaway: The Home Stretch

November 7th, 2016, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Today on The Takeaway with host John Hockenberry: How certain is the Presidential race? What about the Senate? Who picks the bug? The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern (I’m scheduled at 30-40 minutes after the hour). Find a radio station near you, stream at thetakeaway.org, or listen to the segment [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Is 99% a reasonable probability?

November 6th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang

Three sets of data point in the same direction: The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%. National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later). Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%. Based on this [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Confidence is associated with increased turnout

November 5th, 2016, 10:40pm by Sam Wang

I’m getting mail claiming that when voters are sure their candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. Therefore (these are Democrats writing) I should pipe down. However, this speculation contradicts both human nature and empirical evidence.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Beyoncé and Me

November 5th, 2016, 5:56am by Sam Wang

Well, this was unexpected. The clip is here.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Sound bites and bug bites

November 4th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug. https://t.co/3eefhWzI3y — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 19, 2016 We’re entering a period when all the math and data gets converted to short quotes. The above quote is pre-Comey, but I will live with it. I have some interviews [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

On CNN Digital: watch the data, not the drama

November 3rd, 2016, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

So, Julian Zelizer and I had an e-chat about next Tuesday on CNN Digital. Mostly themes you know!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #19: Election Night

November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Not 100%

November 3rd, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang

For a moment this morning, the top banner probability has read 100%. Sorry, rounding glitch in the software. It should max out at >99%. Fixing soon.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President