Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+2.8% Senate R+4.8% Find key elections near you!

Entries Tagged as 'Politics'

After Election Day: Degrees of treif

March 17th, 2015, 10:07am by Sam Wang

wow, what? –> in “bombshell 12 hours from election,” Tzipi Livni forgoes rotating premiership agreement with Herzog http://t.co/bivJLqXCY5 — Taniel (@Taniel) March 17, 2015 If pre-election polls hold up – and there is some question now, since Israeli law prohibited publication of polls over the weekend – Labor/Hatnuah (also known as the Zionist Camp) may […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics

Israeli election 2015: Netanyahu at risk?

March 14th, 2015, 6:03pm by Sam Wang

Note: updated to reflect final polls and some reader comments like this one. Israeli elections are Tuesday, March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day! Israeli politics is rococo in its complexity, but let’s take a look at the data. Bottom line, there is a substantial chance of Netanyahu being ousted as Prime Minister. In the context […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics

Meanwhile, in real news…

September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang

1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

Will momentum encounter the Queen?

September 16th, 2014, 4:00am by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out that most surveys indicated that the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to pass. Nonetheless, a close look suggests that Thursday’s election will be extremely close, thanks to the elusive quality of political momentum.

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics

A note on Scottish independence

September 12th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics

Game change: Kansas Democrat drops out of Senate race

September 3rd, 2014, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

[Update, Thursday 9:45am: see my new piece at The New Yorker.com. -SW] Chad Taylor (D) just dropped out of the Kansas Senate race. I declare this the political news of the week. To understand why, read my essays here (The New Yorker) and here (PEC). Basically the probability of Democratic control of the Senate is about […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

GOP governors pay a price for blocking the ACA

August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang

It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Politics

A wave election…or a ripple?

August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Race and mental traits: Nicholas Wade’s third error

July 8th, 2014, 11:41pm by Sam Wang

An octogenarian once invited me to his old, exclusive East Coast club to give a talk about neuroscience, my area of specialty. Afterwards, as we walked past oil portraits of old white men across the centuries, the octogenarian pulled me aside, lowered his voice and asked, “I was wondering if you could explain something. What […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Health · Politics

Are Americans really jingoistic yahoos? A cautionary statistical tale

April 13th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang

It can be good for a laugh to view U.S. citizens as people who don’t have a clear idea of what’s happening outside their borders…but still want to launch a military attack. This week in The Monkey Cage comes a finding that feeds that view. The headline is impressive: “The less Americans know about Ukraine’s […]

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics