Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Politics'

GOP governors pay a price for blocking the ACA

August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang

It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.

[

Tags: 2014 Election · Politics

A wave election…or a ripple?

August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!

[

Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Race and mental traits: Nicholas Wade’s third error

July 8th, 2014, 11:41pm by Sam Wang

An octogenarian once invited me to his old, exclusive East Coast club to give a talk about neuroscience, my area of specialty. Afterwards, as we walked past oil portraits of old white men across the centuries, the octogenarian pulled me aside, lowered his voice and asked, “I was wondering if you could explain something. What [...]

[

Tags: Health · Politics

Are Americans really jingoistic yahoos? A cautionary statistical tale

April 13th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang

It can be good for a laugh to view U.S. citizens as people who don’t have a clear idea of what’s happening outside their borders…but still want to launch a military attack. This week in The Monkey Cage comes a finding that feeds that view. The headline is impressive: “The less Americans know about Ukraine’s [...]

[

Tags: Politics

(NYC mayor) Bill DeBlasio’s debt to Anthony Weiner

September 10th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang

Aftermath: Election results and interactive maps can be found at the NYT. DeBlasio currently has 40.3%, so a mayoral runoff appears to be avoided, as I predicted. Stringer wins comptroller – I was on the wrong side of that. However, as I’ve said before, with my methods, anything in the 20-80% probability range is a [...]

[

Tags: Politics

Reince’s plan, Carrico’s folly

January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang

Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been [...]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Politics

The mailbag

January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Site News

Gerrymandering code – for the do-it-yourselfers

January 3rd, 2013, 10:43am by Sam Wang

For the true hardcore…A version of the MATLAB code I used is now available.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Politics

Gerrymanders, Part 2: How many voters were disenfranchised?

January 2nd, 2013, 2:32pm by Sam Wang

(Welcome, redditors! And for the hardcore nerds…) Redistricting is a large and sometimes arcane subject. Take a look at the comments section for the last post. Some of you are quite knowledgeable on the subject. Others are new to it. Before I continue, I’ll lay out some basics, and explain what it is about this problem [...]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics

Gerrymanders, Part 1: Busting the both-sides-do-it myth

December 30th, 2012, 12:29pm by Sam Wang

The Washington Post Second Annual Wonky Awards are out. Wow, there I am for Best Election Modeler. Thank you! (Mental note: If I ever meet the Worst Modeler recipient, Dick Morris, remember to avoid shaking hands. The whole particle-antiparticle thing. We’d annihilate or get stuck together. Either outcome is bad.) >>> As current negotiations over [...]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics