Aftermath: Election results and interactive maps can be found at the NYT. DeBlasio currently has 40.3%, so a mayoral runoff appears to be avoided, as I predicted. Stringer wins comptroller – I was on the wrong side of that. However, as I’ve said before, with my methods, anything in the 20-80% probability range is a [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Politics'
September 10th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been [...]
January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.
January 2nd, 2013, 2:32pm by Sam Wang
(Welcome, redditors! And for the hardcore nerds…) Redistricting is a large and sometimes arcane subject. Take a look at the comments section for the last post. Some of you are quite knowledgeable on the subject. Others are new to it. Before I continue, I’ll lay out some basics, and explain what it is about this problem [...]
December 30th, 2012, 12:29pm by Sam Wang
The Washington Post Second Annual Wonky Awards are out. Wow, there I am for Best Election Modeler. Thank you! (Mental note: If I ever meet the Worst Modeler recipient, Dick Morris, remember to avoid shaking hands. The whole particle-antiparticle thing. We’d annihilate or get stuck together. Either outcome is bad.) >>> As current negotiations over [...]
December 22nd, 2012, 10:43pm by Sam Wang
Update: A reader has pointed out that a substantial fraction of gun deaths are suicides (homicide data are here), raising a complication. However, this point is well-established in peer-reviewed literature (PDF): gun ownership increases death rates across the board: suicides, homicides, accidents… For more discussion of the relationship between guns and homicide, see the work [...]
December 20th, 2012, 10:45pm by Sam Wang
Nerds around the blogosphere seem to be collecting their favorite charts of the year. Obviously, I can’t pick my own. But to recall the Woody Allen joke… …I can pick my second-favorite.
December 14th, 2012, 11:49pm by Sam Wang
After the mass shooting of 20 children and 7 adults in Connecticut, I asked: (1) Are such shootings on the rise? and (2) Would a gun control law make a difference in such events? In a situation like this, it is common to hear that the weapons used were acquired legally (for instance, see Ezra [...]
December 5th, 2012, 9:40am by Sam Wang
After a rest, I cautiously re-enter the fray. Analysis of polls is far less interesting when there’s no horserace. Let’s just say that I don’t expect NPR to drop by today. Other themes from this summer remain important, including filibuster reform and gerrymandering. Gerrymandering lends itself well to what we do here. Stay tuned! Filibuster reform: [...]