The votes are counted. Likud surged in the home stretch, making them the largest party in the new Knesset. The fifth-largest party, Kulanu, is likely to play an outsized role in determining who the next Prime Minister will be. This means that Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to office is not quite a done deal. First, the [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Politics'
March 18th, 2015, 2:09am by Sam Wang
March 17th, 2015, 3:19pm by Sam Wang
This is useful: a Times of Israel guide to reading exit polls, and how President Rivlin might weigh today’s results. And…official tallies in Hebrew and English. What are you reading?
March 17th, 2015, 10:07am by Sam Wang
wow, what? –> in “bombshell 12 hours from election,” Tzipi Livni forgoes rotating premiership agreement with Herzog http://t.co/bivJLqXCY5 — Taniel (@Taniel) March 17, 2015 If pre-election polls hold up – and there is some question now, since Israeli law prohibited publication of polls over the weekend – Labor/Hatnuah (also known as the Zionist Camp) may [...]
March 14th, 2015, 6:03pm by Sam Wang
Note: updated to reflect final polls and some reader comments like this one. Israeli elections are Tuesday, March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day! Israeli politics is rococo in its complexity, but let’s take a look at the data. Bottom line, there is a substantial chance of Netanyahu being ousted as Prime Minister. In the context [...]
September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang
1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, [...]
September 16th, 2014, 4:00am by Sam Wang
Last week I pointed out that most surveys indicated that the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to pass. Nonetheless, a close look suggests that Thursday’s election will be extremely close, thanks to the elusive quality of political momentum.
September 12th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?
September 3rd, 2014, 8:57pm by Sam Wang
[Update, Thursday 9:45am: see my new piece at The New Yorker.com. -SW] Chad Taylor (D) just dropped out of the Kansas Senate race. I declare this the political news of the week. To understand why, read my essays here (The New Yorker) and here (PEC). Basically the probability of Democratic control of the Senate is about [...]
August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang
It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.
August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!