It can be good for a laugh to view U.S. citizens as people who don’t have a clear idea of what’s happening outside their borders…but still want to launch a military attack. This week in The Monkey Cage comes a finding that feeds that view. The headline is impressive: “The less Americans know about Ukraine’s [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Politics'
Are Americans really jingoistic yahoos? A cautionary statistical tale
April 13th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang
Tags: Politics
(NYC mayor) Bill DeBlasio’s debt to Anthony Weiner
September 10th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
Aftermath: Election results and interactive maps can be found at the NYT. DeBlasio currently has 40.3%, so a mayoral runoff appears to be avoided, as I predicted. Stringer wins comptroller – I was on the wrong side of that. However, as I’ve said before, with my methods, anything in the 20-80% probability range is a [...]
Tags: Politics
Reince’s plan, Carrico’s folly
January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · Politics
The mailbag
January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Site News
Gerrymanders, Part 2: How many voters were disenfranchised?
January 2nd, 2013, 2:32pm by Sam Wang
(Welcome, redditors! And for the hardcore nerds…) Redistricting is a large and sometimes arcane subject. Take a look at the comments section for the last post. Some of you are quite knowledgeable on the subject. Others are new to it. Before I continue, I’ll lay out some basics, and explain what it is about this problem [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics
Gerrymanders, Part 1: Busting the both-sides-do-it myth
December 30th, 2012, 12:29pm by Sam Wang
The Washington Post Second Annual Wonky Awards are out. Wow, there I am for Best Election Modeler. Thank you! (Mental note: If I ever meet the Worst Modeler recipient, Dick Morris, remember to avoid shaking hands. The whole particle-antiparticle thing. We’d annihilate or get stuck together. Either outcome is bad.) >>> As current negotiations over [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics
Scientific American’s gun error
December 22nd, 2012, 10:43pm by Sam Wang
Update: A reader has pointed out that a substantial fraction of gun deaths are suicides (homicide data are here), raising a complication. However, this point is well-established in peer-reviewed literature (PDF): gun ownership increases death rates across the board: suicides, homicides, accidents… For more discussion of the relationship between guns and homicide, see the work [...]
Tags: Politics
What’s your favorite chart of 2012?
December 20th, 2012, 10:45pm by Sam Wang
Nerds around the blogosphere seem to be collecting their favorite charts of the year. Obviously, I can’t pick my own. But to recall the Woody Allen joke… …I can pick my second-favorite.
Tags: 2012 Election · Politics
Did the federal ban on assault weapons matter?
December 14th, 2012, 11:49pm by Sam Wang
After the mass shooting of 20 children and 7 adults in Connecticut, I asked: (1) Are such shootings on the rise? and (2) Would a gun control law make a difference in such events? In a situation like this, it is common to hear that the weapons used were acquired legally (for instance, see Ezra [...]
Tags: Politics
