Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Politics'

Obama’s convention speech

July 28th, 2016, 2:25pm by Sam Wang

Text just now from a senior House Republican who gave me permission to tweet this: “We were supposed to make that sort of speech." — Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) July 28, 2016 In case you missed it, it’s here. A must-watch speech for members of either party. President Obama is appealing to patriotism and love of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics · President

How behavioral science could help get more Americans to vote

June 15th, 2016, 9:03am by Sam Wang

My latest, in the Washington Post.

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Tags: Politics

Advance Voter Registration: The King of Behavioral Interventions?

May 21st, 2016, 7:56am by Sam Wang

Pro-voting activists are constantly trying to increase the rate of voting. They often get interested in behavioral interventions such as voter contact. Successful interventions typically boost turnout by a few percentage points. More generally, the smallness of any get-out-the-vote’s effort means that I don’t have to account for it in any of the polling analysis [...]

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Tags: Politics

Offering a new standard for gerrymandering to the Supreme Court

November 2nd, 2015, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // Today, I filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission case (S. Ct. 14-232). The brief can be found here (for a summary of other briefs, see the Arizona Eagletarian blog). In it, I argue that the Supreme Court should reject Harris’s case on the grounds that there was [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

A Three-Prong Standard for Partisan Gerrymandering

October 8th, 2015, 11:25pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // In Davis v. Bandemer and Vieth v. Jubelirer, the Supreme Court has held that partisan gerrymandering is justiciable (i.e. within their scope to regulate), but that a manageable standard does not, in their view, yet exist. Here is a draft of my paper on how to define such a standard. Prong #1 is [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

Gerrymandering theorems

October 7th, 2015, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

To me, today’s news that Gallup is sitting out the primaries, and maybe even the general election, is not all that notable. The primaries are a hard-to-poll question; any race with more than two candidates seems to have issues (see the UK and Israel as examples). And the general election? It’s such a well-populated space, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

Tuesday’s real winners: Kulanu and the Joint Arab List

March 18th, 2015, 2:09am by Sam Wang

The votes are counted. Likud surged in the home stretch, making them the largest party in the new Knesset. The fifth-largest party, Kulanu, is likely to play an outsized role in determining who the next Prime Minister will be. This means that Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to office is not quite a done deal. First, the [...]

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Tags: Politics

Israel exit polls – and how to read them

March 17th, 2015, 3:19pm by Sam Wang

This is useful: a Times of Israel guide to reading exit polls, and how President Rivlin might weigh today’s results. And…official tallies in Hebrew and English. What are you reading?

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Tags: Politics

After Election Day: Degrees of treif

March 17th, 2015, 10:07am by Sam Wang

wow, what? –> in “bombshell 12 hours from election,” Tzipi Livni forgoes rotating premiership agreement with Herzog http://t.co/bivJLqXCY5 — Taniel (@Taniel) March 17, 2015 If pre-election polls hold up – and there is some question now, since Israeli law prohibited publication of polls over the weekend – Labor/Hatnuah (also known as the Zionist Camp) may [...]

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Tags: Politics

Israeli election 2015: Netanyahu at risk?

March 14th, 2015, 6:03pm by Sam Wang

Note: updated to reflect final polls and some reader comments like this one. Israeli elections are Tuesday, March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day! Israeli politics is rococo in its complexity, but let’s take a look at the data. Bottom line, there is a substantial chance of Netanyahu being ousted as Prime Minister. In the context [...]

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Tags: Politics