Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Politics'

Tuesday’s real winners: Kulanu and the Joint Arab List

March 18th, 2015, 2:09am by Sam Wang

The votes are counted. Likud surged in the home stretch, making them the largest party in the new Knesset. The fifth-largest party, Kulanu, is likely to play an outsized role in determining who the next Prime Minister will be. This means that Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to office is not quite a done deal. First, the [...]

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Tags: Politics

Israel exit polls – and how to read them

March 17th, 2015, 3:19pm by Sam Wang

This is useful: a Times of Israel guide to reading exit polls, and how President Rivlin might weigh today’s results. And…official tallies in Hebrew and English. What are you reading?

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Tags: Politics

After Election Day: Degrees of treif

March 17th, 2015, 10:07am by Sam Wang

wow, what? –> in “bombshell 12 hours from election,” Tzipi Livni forgoes rotating premiership agreement with Herzog http://t.co/bivJLqXCY5 — Taniel (@Taniel) March 17, 2015 If pre-election polls hold up – and there is some question now, since Israeli law prohibited publication of polls over the weekend – Labor/Hatnuah (also known as the Zionist Camp) may [...]

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Tags: Politics

Israeli election 2015: Netanyahu at risk?

March 14th, 2015, 6:03pm by Sam Wang

Note: updated to reflect final polls and some reader comments like this one. Israeli elections are Tuesday, March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day! Israeli politics is rococo in its complexity, but let’s take a look at the data. Bottom line, there is a substantial chance of Netanyahu being ousted as Prime Minister. In the context [...]

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Tags: Politics

Meanwhile, in real news…

September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang

1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

Will momentum encounter the Queen?

September 16th, 2014, 4:00am by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out that most surveys indicated that the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to pass. Nonetheless, a close look suggests that Thursday’s election will be extremely close, thanks to the elusive quality of political momentum.

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Tags: Politics

A note on Scottish independence

September 12th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?

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Tags: Politics

Game change: Kansas Democrat drops out of Senate race

September 3rd, 2014, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

[Update, Thursday 9:45am: see my new piece at The New Yorker.com. -SW] Chad Taylor (D) just dropped out of the Kansas Senate race. I declare this the political news of the week. To understand why, read my essays here (The New Yorker) and here (PEC). Basically the probability of Democratic control of the Senate is about [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

GOP governors pay a price for blocking the ACA

August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang

It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics

A wave election…or a ripple?

August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate