1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Politics'
Meanwhile, in real news…
September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate
Will momentum encounter the Queen?
September 16th, 2014, 4:00am by Sam Wang
Last week I pointed out that most surveys indicated that the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to pass. Nonetheless, a close look suggests that Thursday’s election will be extremely close, thanks to the elusive quality of political momentum.
Tags: Politics
A note on Scottish independence
September 12th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?
Tags: Politics
Game change: Kansas Democrat drops out of Senate race
September 3rd, 2014, 8:57pm by Sam Wang
[Update, Thursday 9:45am: see my new piece at The New Yorker.com. -SW] Chad Taylor (D) just dropped out of the Kansas Senate race. I declare this the political news of the week. To understand why, read my essays here (The New Yorker) and here (PEC). Basically the probability of Democratic control of the Senate is about [...]
Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate
GOP governors pay a price for blocking the ACA
August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang
It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.
Tags: 2014 Election · Politics
A wave election…or a ripple?
August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!
Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate
Race and mental traits: Nicholas Wade’s third error
July 8th, 2014, 11:41pm by Sam Wang
An octogenarian once invited me to his old, exclusive East Coast club to give a talk about neuroscience, my area of specialty. Afterwards, as we walked past oil portraits of old white men across the centuries, the octogenarian pulled me aside, lowered his voice and asked, “I was wondering if you could explain something. What [...]
Are Americans really jingoistic yahoos? A cautionary statistical tale
April 13th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang
It can be good for a laugh to view U.S. citizens as people who don’t have a clear idea of what’s happening outside their borders…but still want to launch a military attack. This week in The Monkey Cage comes a finding that feeds that view. The headline is impressive: “The less Americans know about Ukraine’s [...]
Tags: Politics
(NYC mayor) Bill DeBlasio’s debt to Anthony Weiner
September 10th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
Aftermath: Election results and interactive maps can be found at the NYT. DeBlasio currently has 40.3%, so a mayoral runoff appears to be avoided, as I predicted. Stringer wins comptroller – I was on the wrong side of that. However, as I’ve said before, with my methods, anything in the 20-80% probability range is a [...]
Tags: Politics
Reince’s plan, Carrico’s folly
January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang
Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · Politics
