Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Meta-analysis'

New polls / voting technology news

August 22nd, 2008, 10:14am by Sam Wang

Lots of new polls today, the latest in a stream. The median poll age in key states has improved: FL (4 days), OH (9 days), VA (10 days), CO (10 days). It would be nice to get one more update in Ohio; I think that’s a 4-week-old Quinnipiac poll in the back of the fridge [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

The suspense in Ohio…

August 15th, 2008, 9:24am by Sam Wang

I don’t know about you, but the suspense is killing me. Where is that history trend headed? If you look at the details, the big state that hasn’t reported in weeks is Ohio. Once Ohio reports, we should have a fairly clear idea of the August swing, which I ascribe to McCain’s Celebrity(!)/Anti-Christ ads. Update: [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

Blogospheric mentions of the Meta-Analysis

August 8th, 2008, 12:14pm by Sam Wang

Thanks to returning and new readers Washington Monthly, The Economist, Angry Bear, Chimpanzee Tea Party, and Matt McIrvin. McIrvin’s capsule history of the 2004 Meta-Analysis is particularly good.

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Tags: Meta-analysis

A technical note: Non-independence among states

August 7th, 2008, 7:28am by Sam Wang

The comments on the last thread were quite instructive, and led me to look over Silver’s methods documentation in detail. Wow, that’s quite a complex procedure he has. I should probably address your questions about it before commencing with further description of the Meta-Analysis (which is not a prediction).

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Tags: Meta-analysis · Uncategorized

Pollster.com feed is live! O 331, McC 207, Meta-Margin 3.5%

July 29th, 2008, 2:44pm by Sam Wang

The data feed from Pollster.com is live! Many thanks to Mark Blumenthal and Eric Dienstfrey for their assistance.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

July 25 update: Obama 294 McCain 244

July 25th, 2008, 1:08pm by Sam Wang

While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at electoral-vote.com. Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

Quick NJ Governor’s Race Calculation

October 11th, 2005, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

In the New Jersey governor’s race, recent polls show the Corzine-Forrester margin as 8% (48-40, Fairleigh-Dickinson, 10/4-9), 2% (47-45, Marist, 10/5-6), 7% (44-37, Star-Ledger, 10/3-6), 9% (43-34, Monmouth, 9/21-26), and 4% (48-44, Quinnipiac, 9/20-25). The average margin is Corzine ahead of Forrester by 6.0 ± 1.3% (mean ± SEM). That puts Corzine 4.6 sigma ahead [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Meta-analysis