Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'Meta-analysis'

Crowdsourcing request: swing district locator

October 23rd, 2012, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

I want to create a tool to help locate swing Congressional districts (CDs) near you. Can you help?

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Technical notes on the House prediction

October 6th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

To the reader: This post focuses on technical notes regarding the House prediction. It is not a popular essay, but is for diehard geeks. Additional notes will be added here.

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Foster v. Biggert (IL-11)

October 3rd, 2012, 6:36am by Sam Wang

I’ve been staying out of individual House races. However, this one is interesting to me as a physics major. Also, my friends Ed Witten and Chiara Nappi drew me in. A deal I couldn’t refuse…

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

The short-term presidential predictor (with MATLAB)

September 29th, 2012, 10:37am by Sam Wang

This is a technical explanation corresponding to this post.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

A technical correction to the Meta-Analysis

September 18th, 2012, 8:10am by Sam Wang

We must make a technical correction to the Meta-Analysis. This correction does not change the general history of the campaign. However, an explanation is due to those of you who watch the twists and turns of the Meta-Analysis closely.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Presidential Meta-Analysis update

September 14th, 2012, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, Daily Dish and Ezra Klein readers. An overview of the fall landscape is here. Our long-range projection of the Obama November win probability, based on polls alone, has been at 87-89% since July. At the end of September will come a more exact projection. The suspense is in the Senate and House. The topline above is [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Stat-urday: Lombardo’s Quadratic Molasses

September 7th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang

You are so impatient. Today is still all pre-DNC data. But I predict you’ll recognize the bounce when it hits. Another Stat-urday. Let’s look at Steve Lombardo’s claim that “you didn’t build that” was a quadratic turning point on July 13th. Aside from the fact that this “trend” extrapolates to a 20-point win by Romney on [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Stat-urday: How to pinpoint the Ryan bounce

August 17th, 2012, 4:05pm by Sam Wang

I don’t own a cat. This rules out catblogging. Instead I will do something geekier: statblogging. (Stat-urday, nyuck nyuck.) Today I show you how I look at a simple data set. It’s a timely example: the Ryan “bounce.” Did it happen at all? How big was it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Fat-tailed distributions

August 8th, 2012, 8:51am by Sam Wang

Attention geeks: As detailed yesterday, I am pondering how to address the issue of black-swan events.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

August 6th, 2012, 10:10am by Sam Wang

Today I describe how we address pollster heterogeneity. Along the way I will also answer (1) why our state probabilities appear more confident than other aggregators, and (2) why the EV distribution at right is so spiky.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President