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Entries Tagged as 'House'

Can Trump bring undecideds home?

July 7th, 2016, 9:05am by Sam Wang

The look on the Trumps faces as they watched Cruz’s speech — Jon Passantino (@passantino) July 21, 2016 July 20, 11:44pm: In light of tonight’s RNC speech by Ted Cruz, in which he pointedly did not endorse Donald Trump, it seems appropriate to revive this post from last week. Trump’s biggest deficit is lack […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

Politics and Polls: a podcast with Julian Zelizer

July 1st, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s a new collaboration with Julian Zelizer over in History. The first episode, produced by the Woodrow Wilson school, is posted here, as well as on iTunes. Topics include: is a 1964-like landslide possible this year? Does Brexit teach us anything about the Trump phenomenon? Does The Party Decide on nominees? Is a realignment of […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

An online app to diagnose partisan gerrymandering

June 26th, 2016, 11:30pm by Sam Wang

Today, Mark Tengi and I release an online application to help diagnose whether partisan gerrymandering is evident in a set of election results. The application is intended for the use of judges, clerks, litigants, and others who want a statistically well-founded and easily understood test for partisan asymmetry. The Supreme Court has suggested that partisan […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Slow news month ahead?

March 26th, 2016, 1:03pm by Sam Wang

I’m on a low-posting regimen for a little while. Basically, I think the Democratic and GOP primaries are settled. That said, why don’t you comment on which of the following would be most interesting:

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Offering a new standard for gerrymandering to the Supreme Court

November 2nd, 2015, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Today, I filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission case (S. Ct. 14-232). The brief can be found here (for a summary of other briefs, see the Arizona Eagletarian blog). In it, I argue that the Supreme Court should reject Harris’s case on the grounds that there was no […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

A Three-Prong Standard for Partisan Gerrymandering

October 8th, 2015, 11:25pm by Sam Wang

Tweet In Davis v. Bandemer and Vieth v. Jubelirer, the Supreme Court has held that partisan gerrymandering is justiciable (i.e. within their scope to regulate), but that a manageable standard does not, in their view, yet exist. Here is a draft of my paper on how to define such a standard. Prong #1 is the […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

Gerrymandering theorems

October 7th, 2015, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

To me, today’s news that Gallup is sitting out the primaries, and maybe even the general election, is not all that notable. The primaries are a hard-to-poll question; any race with more than two candidates seems to have issues (see the UK and Israel as examples). And the general election? It’s such a well-populated space, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

SCOTUS Upholds Arizona Redistricting Commission

June 29th, 2015, 11:17am by Sam Wang

Tweet SCOTUS redistricting: FantasySCOTUS market 5-4 for AZ legislature…but top 3 forecasters predict 5-4 the other way — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) June 29, 2015 Update, 10:05pm: At Slate, Mark Joseph Stern thinks this case might be seen someday as the most important one of this Supreme Court term. I agree with him. -Sam This […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Redistricting

Reality check: Obama net approval/disapproval

November 3rd, 2014, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

Coming into the home stretch, President Obama’s net approval/disapproval rating is at minus 8%. Not good…but 4% better than June. This is what candidates face as in-person voting starts tomorrow morning.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate