Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

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Entries Tagged as 'House'

Final Projections 2016

November 8th, 2016, 12:45am by Sam Wang

(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.) Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. Soon I’ll put out a brief […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

Politics & Polls #19: Election Night

November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so little? The answer: […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics And Polls #15: Senate And House Outlook

October 13th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman is the most knowledgeable person about House districts and elections I know. We chew the cud about the election – and 2017. Listen now! After you are done…find a swing district near you.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

How Powerful Is Gerrymandering, Anyway? A Conversation With David Daley – Wednesday October 12th in Princeton

October 7th, 2016, 12:01am by Sam Wang

Do you want to move the needle on who controls the House? Use the cool app in the left sidebar to locate competitive House districts near you. Also, use the donation links, which lead to either major party. Democrats will gain seats – but they face a major barrier to gaining a majority. Tonight (Wednesday), […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting