Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'House'

How Powerful Is Gerrymandering, Anyway? A Conversation With David Daley – Wednesday October 12th in Princeton

October 7th, 2016, 12:01am by Sam Wang

Do you want to move the needle on who controls the House? Use the cool app in the left sidebar to locate competitive House districts near you. Also, use the donation links, which lead to either major party. Democrats will gain seats – but they face a major barrier to gaining a majority. Tonight (Wednesday), […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Find a competitive House race near you!

September 9th, 2016, 8:51am by Sam Wang

This year, Republicans are going to lose seats in the House of Representatives – this is certain. How many seats, we don’t know. As analyzed by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, their majority is protected by aggressive redistricting efforts in 2010 (see my Stanford Law Review article and David Daley’s book Ratf***ed) and […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Nervous?

September 7th, 2016, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Nervous about recent changes in polls? As usual, don’t pay attention to single surveys. However, it is true that the Presidential race has narrowed by a few percentage points; the median of national polls taken over the last week is Clinton +2%. PEC’s state poll-based analysis will probably continue to move toward Trump for at […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

What would it take for the House to flip?

August 12th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

As I wrote recently, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan (R), has raised the possibility that his party could lose its majority in November. This fear can account for a variety of recent political events, including the entry into the presidential race of a total unknown who just happens to be the policy director of […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

The party conventions begin

July 18th, 2016, 8:01am by Sam Wang

The Republican Party’s national convention starts today [schedule]. Conventions are a chance for a political party to showcase their unity, their candidate, and their policies. Next week the Democrats take the national stage. Viewers will get a fairly direct contrast. As measured via state polls, the Presidential race shows Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of where […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics and Polls #3: A Referendum on the Incumbent Party?

July 14th, 2016, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

In Politics & Polls #3 (podcast), Julian Zelizer and I talk about the extent to which the election is a referendum on the governing party…and who that might benefit. Courtesy of the Woodrow Wilson School. [Politics & Polls on iTunes] [on SoundCloud]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

What is fascism?

July 13th, 2016, 8:31am by Sam Wang

We have a few weeks of waiting to see where polls are headed. I expect many undeclared voters to choose up sides after the conventions. In the meantime, the political theater is a more riveting story. Not necessarily in a good way. For those who take the long view, Umberto Eco’s essay defining “Ur-Fascism” is […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President