Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'House'

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? https://t.co/mZNwf56UpV — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics And Polls #15: Senate And House Outlook

October 13th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman is the most knowledgeable person about House districts and elections I know. We chew the cud about the election – and 2017. Listen now! After you are done…find a swing district near you.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

How Powerful Is Gerrymandering, Anyway? A Conversation With David Daley – Wednesday October 12th in Princeton

October 7th, 2016, 12:01am by Sam Wang

Do you want to move the needle on who controls the House? Use the cool app in the left sidebar to locate competitive House districts near you. Also, use the donation links, which lead to either major party. Democrats will gain seats – but they face a major barrier to gaining a majority. Tonight (Wednesday), [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Find a competitive House race near you!

September 9th, 2016, 8:51am by Sam Wang

This year, Republicans are going to lose seats in the House of Representatives – this is certain. How many seats, we don’t know. As analyzed by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, their majority is protected by aggressive redistricting efforts in 2010 (see my Stanford Law Review article and David Daley’s book Ratf***ed) and [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Nervous?

September 7th, 2016, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Nervous about recent changes in polls? As usual, don’t pay attention to single surveys. However, it is true that the Presidential race has narrowed by a few percentage points; the median of national polls taken over the last week is Clinton +2%. PEC’s state poll-based analysis will probably continue to move toward Trump for at [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate