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A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

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Entries Tagged as 'House'

Why Your Vote Matters: North Carolina

October 21st, 2018, 1:56pm by Sam Wang

Part of a series on Key Elections Near You. One of the most remarkable states in this year’s election is North Carolina. Thanks to a lax state constitution, more than anywhere else in the Union, partisans have had the opportunity in North Carolina to isolate government from voters in a remarkable manner. But in two […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Saturday: on CNN with Smerconish, 9:30am Eastern

October 19th, 2018, 8:16pm by Sam Wang

Saturday at 9:30am Eastern on CNN, I joined @smerconish to talk about midterm elections. On my mind, a bug in democracy: this year Democrats could win the popular vote, yet still not retake the House. P.S. We didn’t get to the part about how to repair the bugs. Basically, Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Triage and Refocus

October 17th, 2018, 11:43pm by Sam Wang

A curious inverse law seems to be at work. As politics gets louder and more extreme, public opinion becomes less volatile. As measured by public opinion, this trend dates to the mid-1990s, when Newt Gingrich led the charge to take control of Congress – a fateful turn in national politics. Fewer voters cross partisan lines […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Three Ways To Maximize Your Power

October 6th, 2018, 3:52pm by Sam Wang

It’s exactly one month to the election. Here are three ways to maximize your power. 1) Students: Figure out the place where your vote matters the most. This site, Make My Vote Matter, figures it out for you. It’s developed by a scientist, Ursula Wong-Brown, and shows you which address has more competitive House/Senate/governor races. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Post-Labor Day movement: for Republicans, a Kavanaugh effect?

October 5th, 2018, 9:24am by Sam Wang

We’re off to a late start this year; more balls in the air, especially gerrymandering, and a busy term. The House and Senate calculations are running for 2018, though we’re still polishing the display. The calculations are designed to pick up movement quickly. Here’s something notable: since Labor Day, both indicators show distinct movement, about […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · Supreme Court

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Thomas Hofeller, 1943-2018

August 19th, 2018, 9:59am by Sam Wang

Despite the near-certainty that Democrats will win the national popular vote for House races in November, I still estimate a 10% probability (and other forecasters, up to 25%) that Republicans will retain control. Why? Gerrymandering. More than anyone else, Tom Hofeller was responsible for the modern age of aggressive redistricting. He carried out this program […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part I, the House

July 14th, 2018, 10:48am by Sam Wang

The odds moderately favor a switch in control of the House of Representatives in 2018. But make no mistake, things could go either way. This November will be a battle of inches. For many of you, the battle’s coming to a district near you. We’re renewing a tool that made its debut two years ago. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Another SCOTUS partisan gerrymandering case in 2017-2018 goes forward!

December 8th, 2017, 11:12pm by Sam Wang

Amos 5:24 But let judgment run down as waters, and righteousness as a mighty stream. https://t.co/WOEq1KdUnt — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) December 8, 2017 This is quite novel. We are still waiting for the decision in Gill v. Whitford, this year’s big partisan-gerrymandering case before the Supreme Court. However, it turns out it’s just the first […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

A Manageable Approach to Partisan Gerrymandering

September 4th, 2017, 2:22pm by Sam Wang

If the Supreme Court lays down a partisan symmetry-based standard for gerrymandering, will this open up a flood of lawsuits? Over at Election Law Blog, I use election evidence to argue that no, it will act as more of a brushback to future offenders. The reason? As you can see in the chart, partisan gerrymanders only […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting