Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'House'

Politics & Polls #29

February 3rd, 2017, 7:34am by Sam Wang

Are we seeing the birth cries of an authoritarian regime? Or is it the gang that couldn’t shoot straight? Julian Zelizer and I debate this and more in episode #29 of Politics & Polls. Following up on a previous episode with Theda Skocpol on rebuilding the Democratic Party, here’s a great interview with Skocpol in Democracy [...]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · President

Politics & Polls #26: Indivisible!

January 12th, 2017, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Since the election, Democrats have struggled with how to respond to a Donald Trump presidency. But one group is starting to get some traction – the authors of an online guide that is going viral: “Indivisible: A Practical Guide for Resisting the Trump Agenda.” In episode #26 of Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I [...]

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Tags: House · Politics · Senate · U.S. Institutions

House ethics rules change reversed…by citizen phone calls

January 3rd, 2017, 3:32pm by Sam Wang

Most members tell me blizzard of angry constituent calls were most impt factor in getting the House to sideline the amdt — Robert Costa (@costareports) January 3, 2017 On the first day of the new Congress, the House Republican Conference reversed its proposed rules change, in which an independent ethics commission would have been weakened. [...]

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Tags: House

Helping the New Gerrymandering Standard Survive in the Supreme Court

November 24th, 2016, 10:20pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Thanksgiving brings the nation a win for fair representation, in the form of a way to deal with partisan gerrymandering. A three-judge court ruled that the Wisconsin state legislative map is a partisan gerrymander: a map drawn to favor one major political party over the other (decision: Whitford Op. and Order, Dkt. 166, Nov. 21, [...]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Election liveblog thread #1

November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang

I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

November 8th, 2016, 12:45am by Sam Wang

(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.) Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. Soon I’ll put out a brief [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

Politics & Polls #19: Election Night

November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? https://t.co/mZNwf56UpV — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate