(Welcome, New York Times readers!) Thanks to commenters on this topic. Your feedback has shaped my thinking on this subject. I recall being skeptical that redistricting could have a major effect. As it turns out, the effects of partisan redistricting helped Republicans far more than I expected. One reason for my skepticism is that the [...]
Entries Tagged as 'House'
The mailbag
January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Site News
Gerrymanders, Part 2: How many voters were disenfranchised?
January 2nd, 2013, 2:32pm by Sam Wang
(Welcome, redditors! And for the hardcore nerds…) Redistricting is a large and sometimes arcane subject. Take a look at the comments section for the last post. Some of you are quite knowledgeable on the subject. Others are new to it. Before I continue, I’ll lay out some basics, and explain what it is about this problem [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics
Gerrymanders, Part 1: Busting the both-sides-do-it myth
December 30th, 2012, 12:29pm by Sam Wang
The Washington Post Second Annual Wonky Awards are out. Wow, there I am for Best Election Modeler. Thank you! (Mental note: If I ever meet the Worst Modeler recipient, Dick Morris, remember to avoid shaking hands. The whole particle-antiparticle thing. We’d annihilate or get stuck together. Either outcome is bad.) >>> As current negotiations over [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics
The House – new, with less democracy!
November 9th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
Today, Speaker John Boehner stated that his party’s leverage comes from the fact that it retained control of the House. Yet they lost the popular vote. How can this be? Before the election, I predicted that even if more people voted for Democratic House candidates, Republicans could still retain control. The reason I gave was [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House
After the storm
November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang
We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate
House 2012 prediction (final)
November 5th, 2012, 1:48pm by Sam Wang
Democrats and Republicans are tied in the generic Congressional ballot. But Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the House, to a significant extent because redistricting and incumbency give them a +2.5% advantage. A nongeneric, district-by-district look also favors maintained Republican control. Based on these two lines of evidence, Democrats appear likely to gain 2-22 [...]
Tags: 2012 Election · House
Getting away from Sandy?
October 29th, 2012, 8:50am by Sam Wang
Other than Virginia, Sandy is a blue-state hurricane. If you are looking for a place to go, might I suggest canvassing? District options are listed here. PA-12 looks good, and far upstate New York. And of course there is always Ohio. Getting kind of breezy around here.
Tags: 2012 Election · House · President
