Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'House'

SCOTUS Upholds Arizona Redistricting Commission

June 29th, 2015, 11:17am by Sam Wang

Tweet SCOTUS redistricting: FantasySCOTUS market 5-4 for AZ legislature…but top 3 forecasters predict 5-4 the other way https://t.co/GrRt01fDPx — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) June 29, 2015 Update, 10:05pm: At Slate, Mark Joseph Stern thinks this case might be seen someday as the most important one of this Supreme Court term. I agree with him. -Sam This [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Reality check: Obama net approval/disapproval

November 3rd, 2014, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

Coming into the home stretch, President Obama’s net approval/disapproval rating is at minus 8%. Not good…but 4% better than June. This is what candidates face as in-person voting starts tomorrow morning.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

How To Get A Wave Majority With A Ripple Vote

November 1st, 2014, 10:15am by Sam Wang

New Yorker: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Republicans will probably win the national House popular vote, but even if they didn’t, it wouldn’t matter. Why not? In The New Yorker, I discuss gerrymandering (a big cause) and population patterns (a smaller cause).

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Tags: 2014 Election · House

No Wave

October 9th, 2014, 11:35am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Today let’s back up a step, and not focus so much on individual polls, or even single races. A larger picture emerges if we look at recent polls in the Senate and the House, as well as President Obama’s net disapproval rating. Taken in full, polls indicate a continuation of recent [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · President · Senate

And Then There Were Four (or Five?)

September 23rd, 2014, 1:06pm by Sam Wang

In the last few days the Meta-Margin’s been bouncing around. It’s a snapshot of current conditions, and will probably keep moving up and down. That bounciness – so vexing to some of you! – is part of how I am sampling day-to-day variation. This is the principal input to our predictive model for the November [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

Monday morning – Senate steady, House on the move

September 15th, 2014, 9:09am by Sam Wang

Good morning! From a polling standpoint, there was little genuine news over the weekend. However, other sites are moving toward the Princeton Election Consortium estimate. There are several likely reasons.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

A wave election…or a ripple?

August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Just how steep is that climb in 2014, anyway?

October 24th, 2013, 10:52pm by Sam Wang

With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk. -John von Neumann If we want to forecast House control in 2014 without drilling into individual Congressional districts, we need to know two things: What national popular vote margin is needed to flip House control; and What [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House

How high is the House levee?

October 17th, 2013, 7:33pm by Sam Wang

Today we have some outlier statements made by other political analysts. As rounded up by Andrew Sullivan, we have Nate Cohn at the New Republic quoting Alan Abramowitz: Democrats need a 13 point Democratic edge on September 1 to win the 17 seats necessary to retake the chamber in November. For any wave election, that [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House