Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'House'

What would it take for the House to flip?

August 12th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

As I wrote recently, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan (R), has raised the possibility that his party could lose its majority in November. This fear can account for a variety of recent political events, including the entry into the presidential race of a total unknown who just happens to be the policy director of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

The party conventions begin

July 18th, 2016, 8:01am by Sam Wang

The Republican Party’s national convention starts today [schedule]. Conventions are a chance for a political party to showcase their unity, their candidate, and their policies. Next week the Democrats take the national stage. Viewers will get a fairly direct contrast. As measured via state polls, the Presidential race shows Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of where [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics and Polls #3: A Referendum on the Incumbent Party?

July 14th, 2016, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

In Politics & Polls #3 (podcast), Julian Zelizer and I talk about the extent to which the election is a referendum on the governing party…and who that might benefit. Courtesy of the Woodrow Wilson School. [Politics & Polls on iTunes] [on SoundCloud]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

What is fascism?

July 13th, 2016, 8:31am by Sam Wang

We have a few weeks of waiting to see where polls are headed. I expect many undeclared voters to choose up sides after the conventions. In the meantime, the political theater is a more riveting story. Not necessarily in a good way. For those who take the long view, Umberto Eco’s essay defining “Ur-Fascism” is [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

Can Trump bring undecideds home?

July 7th, 2016, 9:05am by Sam Wang

The look on the Trumps faces as they watched Cruz’s speech pic.twitter.com/0FoGaoM9Xp — Jon Passantino (@passantino) July 21, 2016 July 20, 11:44pm: In light of tonight’s RNC speech by Ted Cruz, in which he pointedly did not endorse Donald Trump, it seems appropriate to revive this post from last week. Trump’s biggest deficit is lack [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

Politics and Polls: a podcast with Julian Zelizer

July 1st, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s a new collaboration with Julian Zelizer over in History. The first episode, produced by the Woodrow Wilson school, is posted here, as well as on iTunes. Topics include: is a 1964-like landslide possible this year? Does Brexit teach us anything about the Trump phenomenon? Does The Party Decide on nominees? Is a realignment of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

An online app to diagnose partisan gerrymandering

June 26th, 2016, 11:30pm by Sam Wang

Today, Mark Tengi and I release an online application to help diagnose whether partisan gerrymandering is evident in a set of election results. The application is intended for the use of judges, clerks, litigants, and others who want a statistically well-founded and easily understood test for partisan asymmetry. The Supreme Court has suggested that partisan [...]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Slow news month ahead?

March 26th, 2016, 1:03pm by Sam Wang

I’m on a low-posting regimen for a little while. Basically, I think the Democratic and GOP primaries are settled. That said, why don’t you comment on which of the following would be most interesting:

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate