Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as 'governors'

Tuesday election trackers

November 6th, 2017, 9:50pm by Sam Wang

The DailyKos Elections tracking spreadsheet is here. The New Jersey governor’s race is a foregone conclusion – the winner should be Phil Murphy (D), which would give Democrats full control of government. Virginia governor’s race looks close: Northam (D) leads Gillespie (R) by 2.5 +/- 0.9 % (median +/- SEM, n=4). It’s closer than expected, [...]

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Tags: governors

Partisan Gerrymandering Across the 50 States

July 16th, 2017, 8:49am by Sam Wang

Note: I’ll pretty this up later. In the meantime, the files are available for you to download and inspect at the end of this post. Over at the Associated Press, reporter David Lieb has published a new, in-depth analysis of the effects of gerrymandering in the 2016 Congressional and statehouse elections. The analysis found that [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · governors · Redistricting

Arnold Schwarzenegger breaks down gerrymandering

February 22nd, 2017, 10:56am by Sam Wang

Schwarzenegger gives an amusing and substantively sound take on gerrymandering: His solution is a citizens’ commission to take redistricting out of the hands of legislators. As I have analyzed (see page 1296), the California Redistricting Commission has done a good job of creating competitive races where none existed before. A commission-based approach has the advantage [...]

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Tags: governors · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

S.C.: After Haley endorsement, Rubio pulls even with Cruz; pressure on Bush?

February 20th, 2016, 5:43am by Sam Wang

(Guardian coverage) It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19*, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · governors · President

Exceptionally Low Turnout Can Account For Polling Errors

November 10th, 2014, 9:26am by Sam Wang

At The American Prospect: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The American Prospect, I detail how this year’s polling errors are correlated with voter turnout, which was the lowest since 1942, as based on Michael McDonald’s tabulation [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

The Midterm Polling Curse (Morning-after edition)

November 5th, 2014, 11:41am by Sam Wang

Pre-election PEC Senate aggregate: 52 Republican seats. Outcome: 52 or more Republican seats (Alaska is not called, and Louisiana goes to a runoff). As I wrote in The New Republic, last night’s performance by the GOP was remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 5.3 percentage points. Prime examples of [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Errors Are Inevitable – But Who Will Benefit?

November 4th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Despite the certainty of pundits, we actually don’t know who will win the Senate! In The New Yorker, I explain. From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Geek’s Guide To The Election, 2014 edition

November 4th, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Download it! It includes instructions for estimating Delta. Liveblogging will start around 8:00pm. Useful links (will add as day goes on): HuffPollster: Senate Election Live-Tracker. DailyKos Elections, hour-by-hour guide. New York Times, The Upshot, Senate tracker.

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Gubernatorial final snapshots, 2014

November 4th, 2014, 12:54am by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>Here are final polling snapshots for gubernatorial races that are either close or likely to switch party control: Put your own predictions in comments! Some more notes…

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors

Governors: incumbents still at risk

November 1st, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

This year, an unusually high number of incumbents are threatened, both governors (last elected in the wave of 2010*) and senators (last elected in the wave of 2008). Previously, I identified 14 races where party control will change or the incumbent is at serious risk. In the home stretch, many governors have recovered slightly, but [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors