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Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

Re-electability

February 15th, 2020, 12:47am by Sam Wang

A reader asked the following question in comments: Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically. The answer is that as far as I can tell, basically it doesn’t matter.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Sanders v. Buttigieg?

February 11th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

The New Hampshire primary is coming in as expected from last week’s polls. Like I said Saturday, past patterns suggest that the most likely nominee will be Sanders or Buttigieg. Based on the fact that the past pattern has only been observed across 9 nomination races, the probability of an exception might be around 1 […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Moneyball politics: Florida (Part II)

February 9th, 2020, 8:36am by Sam Wang

A few days ago, I wrote about how focused effort in a handful of Florida state legislative districts could lead to outsized consequences lasting for the next decade. Here are those districts – and ways to focus on them.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House

Did Iowa turn Biden and Warren into longshots?

February 8th, 2020, 3:09pm by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out three past criteria that have described the eventual nominee of either party. With the New Hampshire primary just three days away, current polls make it look like two people meet all the criteria: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. After the fuss over difficult tabulation in the Iowa caucus, there was […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Moneyball politics: Florida

February 6th, 2020, 4:51am by Sam Wang

I’m in Florida at an event with Katie Fahey, founder of Voters Not Politicians! Naturally we got to talking about redistricting reform. Here at PEC, we’ve always been looking for ways to maximize the effectiveness of people’s donations and time. That means finding interventions that move probabilities the most, while costing the least. Usually, these […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

Newly in charge, Virginia Democrats still support redistricting reform

February 4th, 2020, 8:25pm by Aaron Barden

Hi! I’m Aaron Barden, legal analyst for the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. I’m in Richmond following the redistricting legislation. Democrats are newly in charge of the General Assembly – and they’re still in favor of reform. Today I witnessed bipartisan action to strengthen and improve the redistricting amendment – real progress! First, a basic review.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

How predictive is the Iowa caucus? 2020 edition

February 3rd, 2020, 11:10am by Sam Wang

(Update, Tuesday February 4th 7:45pm: With Iowa returns finally becoming available, it looks like the top four are the same as what I wrote about below. So this post can be read exactly the same – no modification necessary!) (Pardon the mess – we’re under construction. 2020 content coming soon!) National surveys and the Iowa caucus […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Close races taking shape in 2020: Senate control in play?

January 16th, 2020, 8:16pm by Sam Wang

Graphed by Ben Rosenblatt, here are the top 10 most-popular and bottom 10 least-popular Senators, as measured by Morning Consult. Notably, five of the bottom six are up for re-election this November – and all are Republicans. These five races would seem to present some ripe opportunities – potentially enough to switch control of the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Lessons from 2016 and application to 2020

November 24th, 2019, 2:23pm by Sam Wang

For his piece on polling in the New York Times, Giovanni Russonello contacted me with questions about what went wrong in my 2016 analysis. Our starting point: my Election Eve estimate that Hillary Clinton’s Meta-Margin of +1.1% led to a 93% probability. The simple answer is that I underestimated the minimum uncertainty in state polls, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election

What’s at stake next week in Virginia: Redistricting Reform

October 26th, 2019, 12:41pm by Sam Wang

Virginia was the site of the first gerrymander in 1789. Now, Virginia voters get a chance to help make today’s maps the last gerrymander that the Old Dominion ever sees. Before next week’s elections, ask candidates to support reform. To help, Princeton Gerrymandering Project has a new report. PGP’s new report describes how gerrymandering can […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Princeton · Redistricting