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Entries Tagged as '2018 Election'

Why Your Vote Matters: Michigan

November 3rd, 2018, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s not too late to vote absentee! Stop by your local clerk’s office ASAP to request or drop off an absentee ballot. All ballots MUST be in your clerk’s hands by 8 p.m. on Tuesday. https://t.co/IzmzTNvILn — Progress Michigan (@ProgressMich) November 3, 2018 Whether you are progressive, conservative, or independent, there are many reasons to […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

Making the last push in 2018

November 3rd, 2018, 1:09pm by Sam Wang

For neuroscientists, Election Day is a middling priority when planning conferences. Today starts the annual Society for Neuroscience meeting in San Diego. It’s an incredible outpouring of science and creative effort from close to 30,000 people – most of whom will be far from home. I hope at least they voted! That is the minimal […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

When The (Gerrymandered) Levee Breaks: North Carolina and Michigan

November 3rd, 2018, 1:01am by Sam Wang

Back in 2013, I wrote about the hidden vulnerability when a party engineers winning districts for itself. This idea is in full force for 2018. Gerrymandered wins may swing back hard, because they often have a mix of Democratic, Republican, and most important, independent (and maybe swingable) voters. This would explain some surprisingly close races in […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Senate outlook: 45-50 Democratic/Independent seats (median=47)

November 2nd, 2018, 10:47am by Sam Wang

If systematic polling error is no larger than past midterm elections (median of 3 percentage points, as high as 5 points), control of the Senate appears to be a difficult lift for the Democrats. The polling error would have to be at least 5.0 points (that’s how the Meta-Margin is defined). They have a much […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: In the Midwest, will Republicans lose their grip on power?

November 1st, 2018, 10:43am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) Six of the most important gubernatorial elections next week take place in the Midwest: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. In October polling, Democrats lead in all six races. In four states (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio), Republicans are at risk of losing sole legislative+gubernatorial control of […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Voter rights expansion is on the ballot next week!

October 31st, 2018, 11:50am by Sam Wang

Voter-ID and voter-suppression efforts are in the news. But there is also big positive news under the radar. Ballot initiatives across the nation would register, re-enfranchise, and re-empower millions of voters. Numerically, these effects are 8-10% of voting-age adults – they are far larger than the effects of voter-ID laws. (Unfortunately, they’re in different states.) In […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election · Redistricting

Early voting data

October 30th, 2018, 10:54pm by Sam Wang

TargetSmart is tabulating early voting on a state-by-state basis. Move your mouse over the little bar graphs to see 2018 vs. 2014 early-voting-to-date. Basically every key state has fairly large surges in early voting. Maybe not surprising since they were usually not key states four years ago. But here is something more interesting: combining 42 […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Redistricting Reform Initiatives For 2018

October 30th, 2018, 12:52am by Sam Wang

Redistricting reform is on the ballot next week! Citizens of Utah, Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri will vote on initiatives that will reform redistricting in their states. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project has analyzed all four initiatives. All have a high potential to succeed at making redistricting fairer, and not targeting political parties or minority groups to […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Redistricting

Politics & Polls: Year Of The Woman, 2018 – and North Carolina

October 28th, 2018, 7:30pm by Sam Wang

This Politics & Polls is a pre-midterms double-header, on women and on North Carolina. This year, a record number of women candidates are running for federal office. Where did this come from, and how many of them will win? Julian Zelizer and I drill in with Prof. Danielle Thomsen of U.C. Irvine, who’s visiting Princeton […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Optimal 2018 donations in the home stretch: Senate, House, Governor

October 26th, 2018, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Judging from my mail, I think some of you think I am back online making predictions. This is not true! PEC provides aggregation and information to reveal where you can make the most impact. Since almost the start, my reason for operating PEC was to show how such efforts might be optimized. And as I wrote […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate