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Entries Tagged as '2018 Election'

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

OH-12 is ominous for GOP in House…and the Senate

August 7th, 2018, 11:36pm by Sam Wang

At the moment, in the special election in Ohio’s gerrymandered 12th district, Republican Troy Balderson leads Democrat Danny O’Connor by 0.9 percentage point (with 0.6% of the vote going to the Green Party candidate). This is a loss for Democrats, but it’s a 10-point swing from the Clinton-Trump margin in 2016. That’s very much in […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part II, the Senate

August 2nd, 2018, 1:04am by Sam Wang

In 2018, what’s a swing state? In many cases, it’s not the swing states that everyone focused on in 2016. How should you optimize your activism and donations? tl;dr: You can donate via the PEC ActBlue page (if you like Democrats) or the NRSC (if you like Republicans). The reason for the difference from 2016 […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part I, the House

July 14th, 2018, 10:48am by Sam Wang

The odds moderately favor a switch in control of the House of Representatives in 2018. But make no mistake, things could go either way. This November will be a battle of inches. For many of you, the battle’s coming to a district near you. We’re renewing a tool that made its debut two years ago. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Three advance indicators of the House outcome in 2018

July 11th, 2018, 7:19pm by Sam Wang

Three indicators point, with varying degrees of strength, toward a Democratic takeover of the House in this November’s election. Two of them are the usual suspects: the generic Congressional ballot and special elections. There’s a third one that Harry Enten of CNN has noticed: which side is *not* talking about its internal polls. I’m still […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Happy Fourth Of July!

July 4th, 2018, 11:40am by Sam Wang

Fun thing for your #July4th BBQ:On your phone, computer or laptop, go to: get your guests to #register to vote!Print forms for people to mail.Turn your BBQ into a voter drive!The midterms are #in123days.#FlipItBlue#FourthofJuly2018 — Steve Marmel (@Marmel) July 4, 2018

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Tags: 2018 Election

The Princeton Election Consortium needs your help!

May 9th, 2018, 10:26pm by Sam Wang

Here at PEC, we need help for the 2018 season. I want to revamp the site, as well as redesign some of the ways we present information. It’s an effort for the summer, with the goal of being fully automatic by fall. Interested? See this ad, and write to us. One catch: it would be […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Game over in Pennsylvania!

March 19th, 2018, 3:49pm by Sam Wang

Today came two rulings. First, a three-judge court turned down a challenge to the redrawn Pennyslvania Congressional map. Then, a few hours later, the U.S. Supreme Court did the same. These were long-shot cases, since they would have involved finding that the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Constitution was in conflict with the United States Constitution, for example […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election · Redistricting

Pennsylvania’s (current) 18th CD: The top of the levee

March 13th, 2018, 9:08pm by Sam Wang

Whoever wins today’s special election to fill the open Congressional seat in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, it wasn’t supposed to be close. It’s part of a statewide partisan gerrymander, a district that a generic Republican ought to win by about 20 points. In November 2016, Donald Trump got 58% to Hillary Clinton’s 39%. The closeness of […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Introducing the new Pennsylvania Congressional map

February 19th, 2018, 3:20pm by Sam Wang

Here’s the new Congressional map for Pennsylvania, drawn by advisor to the court Nate Persily. I think it’s a landmark contribution to the understanding of partisan fairness, in one of the most politically heterogeneous states in the Union – “Pennsatucky.” For anyone who’s drawn such maps, this particular one is a pleasure to look at. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Redistricting