Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Entries Tagged as '2016 Election'

Not 100%

November 3rd, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang

For a moment this morning, the top banner probability has read 100%. Sorry, rounding glitch in the software. It should max out at >99%. Fixing soon.

[

Tags: 2016 Election · President

An Early Look at 2024?

November 2nd, 2016, 7:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet Here’s something interesting I ran across thanks to @southpaw on Twitter: Scholastic’s survey of the preferences of K-12 kids. The pattern is striking.

[

Tags: 2016 Election · President

Three Easy Pieces

November 1st, 2016, 9:16pm by Sam Wang

Three quick notes. Updates are now done every hour. I’m not trolling for traffic. I just want to be able to see the effects of new state polls soon after they hit the Huffington Post (their RSS feed is in the left sidebar). Like you, I watch the automated Princeton Election Consortium calculation! The Upshot, […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so little? The answer: […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Why did the polls seem so variable this week?

October 27th, 2016, 8:45pm by Sam Wang

Why do the polls seem so variable this week? The basic answer is that there were a lot of them. Outliers are an inevitable consequence. Trump is going on about three polls that he likes best. They are all favorable to him – IBD/TIPP, L.A.Times/USC/Dornsife, and Rasmussen. They show a tie or a small Trump […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #17: All The Way

October 26th, 2016, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

We took a break from the current political season to talk with Robert Schenkkan, who wrote the play “All The Way.” It’s the story of President Lyndon Johnson and his monumental effort in his first year in office to get the Civil Rights Act passed. This event fascinates me because of its importance for equality […]

[

Tags: 2016 Election · Politics

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

[

Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue: Debate #3

October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang

If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.

[

Tags: 2016 Election · President