Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+2.8% Senate R+4.8% Find key elections near you!

Entries Tagged as '2014 Election'

Iowa and Colorado: Is early voting showing up in polls?

October 29th, 2014, 9:43am by Sam Wang

Tweet Over at FiveThirtyEight is a new essay saying that there hasn’t been any concerted movement during this campaign season. Broadly, I agree with their objection that journalists and pundits overuse (and thoughtlessly use) the word “momentum.” However, in this case a close look at the data suggests there was strong movement from September through […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

In State Races, As Much Suspense As 2006 and 2010 Combined

October 26th, 2014, 11:21pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Journalists and pundits have lavished considerable attention on the question of who will control the Senate in 2015. But a broader phenomenon has escaped notice: the sheer number of close state-level races, both in the Senate and in statehouses. At risk are many incumbents who were elected in previous wave years: in 2010 for […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

CNN with Candy Crowley: Sunday 9AM

October 25th, 2014, 8:27am by Sam Wang

On SOTU with Newt Gingrich, Stephanie Cutter, and A.B. Stoddard. Tune in! [transcript] [YouTube – it’s the last segment, starting around 38:00 and named “Down to the Wire and Up for Grabs”]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election

Senate horserace update: what does a Meta-Margin of R+0.4% mean?

October 23rd, 2014, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Update, Saturday: with two new surveys in Alaska, one showing a tie and the other showing a Begich (D) lead, the predicted Senate Meta-Margin is D+0.0%, a perfect tossup. Statistically this is not different from the minuscule difference yesterday…but it does emphasize how closely fought the battle for control is. To see more, click […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Do governors face an anti-incumbent wave?

October 22nd, 2014, 12:05am by Sam Wang

TNR essay:Tweet In my new essay in The New Republic, I analyze gubernatorial races. The bottom line: there are lots of extremely close races, mostly involving embattled Republican incumbents. These difficulties for the GOP are a lot like what Democratic Senate candidates are experiencing: the need to defend gains made in a previous wave election. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election

Sunday 9:45am – on MSNBC’s Up With Steve Kornacki

October 18th, 2014, 7:21pm by Sam Wang

OK, we rescheduled from last week. The topic tomorrow: elections and poll nerdery. The Senate obviously, but perhaps the House and governorships too. Tune in tomorrow! …and, here’s the video. It was fun, fairly substantive, I described the incredible power of Iowa voters compared with my puny vote in New Jersey (at the moment, 1 […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years

October 17th, 2014, 12:49pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He noticed no overall bias averaged across all elections; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · Senate

The Problem With Polls, or…Are Senate Democrats Really Doomed?

October 15th, 2014, 11:49pm by Sam Wang

TNR essay:Tweet Here at PEC, the calculations are built on the assumption that on average, polls provide an unbiased measure of eventual Election Day behavior. This assumption is our strength and our Achilles heel, and it is the topic of my new piece at The New Republic. The supporting calculations are here. In the 2010 and 2012 […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Brief notes

October 14th, 2014, 10:36am by Sam Wang

We’ve been experimenting with presenting the probability as a decimal, on the grounds that the false precision of showing the ones-place is misleading. For example, “0.4” means 40%. However, I’m not seeing a lot of love in comments about this change – a bit of a mixed reaction. Note that the uncertainty (1 sigma) on the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Early voting picks up steam

October 12th, 2014, 8:48pm by Sam Wang

Early voting has started, most notably in Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina. Here is a rundown by Michael McDonald, who drills into the subject in amazing detail. While we’re at it, here’s his early voting tabulation page. Bookmark it! P.S. For general comments use the MSNBC thread. There’s a great conversation going on there.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election