Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2014 Election'

Senate and House final snapshots, 2014

November 4th, 2014, 1:54am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Here are final polling snapshots for Senate races: Put your own predictions in comments! Some more notes…

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Gubernatorial final snapshots, 2014

November 4th, 2014, 12:54am by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>Here are final polling snapshots for gubernatorial races that are either close or likely to switch party control: Put your own predictions in comments! Some more notes…

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors

Grading policies

November 3rd, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang

How should PEC be graded? As the last few polls trickle in, let me give a suggestion for how to evaluate predictions after the election. Late tonight I’ll give actual predictions (and give you a chance to record your own predictions). My preferred measure is the Brier score. As I explain this concept, I’ll refer [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election

Reality check: Obama net approval/disapproval

November 3rd, 2014, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

Coming into the home stretch, President Obama’s net approval/disapproval rating is at minus 8%. Not good…but 4% better than June. This is what candidates face as in-person voting starts tomorrow morning.

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

Hidden errors, overconfident pollsters?

November 3rd, 2014, 10:05am by Sam Wang

I am thinking about how to get the most accurate last-minute snapshots of races, and how to turn that into a scorecard for you (and me) to use on Election Night. I’m also thinking about Brier scores as a means of evaluating the various prognosticators, including me. In the meantime, here’s your morning reading: an [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Late Breaks and Polling Biases

November 2nd, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

I got into poll aggregation in 2004 to reduce endless chatter about outlier polls. Hmmm, how’d that work out… — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 2, 2014 At least one journalist is chattering about whether there’s a late break in polls for Republicans…based on one data point, which is probably statistical noise. Some people are hopeless. [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

How To Get A Wave Majority With A Ripple Vote

November 1st, 2014, 10:15am by Sam Wang

New Yorker: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Republicans will probably win the national House popular vote, but even if they didn’t, it wouldn’t matter. Why not? In The New Yorker, I discuss gerrymandering (a big cause) and population patterns (a smaller cause).

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Tags: 2014 Election · House

Governors: incumbents still at risk

November 1st, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

This year, an unusually high number of incumbents are threatened, both governors (last elected in the wave of 2010*) and senators (last elected in the wave of 2008). Previously, I identified 14 races where party control will change or the incumbent is at serious risk. In the home stretch, many governors have recovered slightly, but [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors

Saturday 9am: CNN (Smerconish) and MSNBC (Kornacki)

October 31st, 2014, 9:37pm by Sam Wang

I’ll be on CNN (Smerconish, sometime between 9 and 10) and MSNBC (Up with Steve Kornacki, live between 9 and 9:30). Key point on CNN (watch it here): is this Tuesday’s election an Obama referendum, or an echo of previous wave elections in 2008 and 2010?

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Races I’ll Be Watching On Election Night

October 31st, 2014, 12:05am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Senate polls in individual states have moved around…but the Meta-Margin and the average seat count have stayed stable. Nonetheless, the crystal ball is cloudy. Why is that? The Midterm Polling Curse. Spoooooky! As I wrote last week, everyone’s calculations are, to an extent, built on sand. Historically, in any given year [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate