Princeton Election Consortium

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

(On-campus) research assistant wanted

February 28th, 2015, 6:30am by Sam Wang

I’m looking for a research assistant at Princeton to work on a gerrymandering project at a scholarly level, i.e. for academic research. It will also have practical implications. There’s a posting at the Student Employment office – look for posting #35677! For now, students only please.

An “Obama Unbound” effect – or Viva Obama?

January 2nd, 2015, 1:13pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Since mid-December, President Obama’s net approve/disapprove numbers have shot up. This graph shows the median of the last 21 days of polling. The current level, a net disapproval of only 2%, reflects six pollsters (Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN, ARG, YouGov/Economist, and ABC/Post). These are his highest numbers since early 2013. What [...]

Tags: 2014 Election · President

Exceptionally Low Turnout Can Account For Polling Errors

November 10th, 2014, 9:26am by Sam Wang

At The American Prospect: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The American Prospect, I detail how this year’s polling errors are correlated with voter turnout, which was the lowest since 1942, as based on Michael McDonald’s tabulation [...]

Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

The Midterm Polling Curse (Morning-after edition)

November 5th, 2014, 11:41am by Sam Wang

Pre-election PEC Senate aggregate: 52 Republican seats. Outcome: 52 or more Republican seats (Alaska is not called, and Louisiana goes to a runoff). As I wrote in The New Republic, last night’s performance by the GOP was remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 5.3 percentage points. Prime examples of [...]

Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Election night liveblogging, 9:00PM

November 4th, 2014, 9:23pm by Sam Wang

See below the fold for older commentary. The most recent comment will appear up top. 12:10am: Tonight’s performance by the GOP has been quite remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans seem to be outperforming polls by around 5 percentage points. That goes a long way toward explaining what is happening in Virginia. In close gubernatorial [...]

Tags: 2014 Election

Election Night liveblogging, 7:00PM

November 4th, 2014, 7:09pm by Sam Wang

See below the fold for older commentary. The most recent comment will appear up top. 8:40pm: The Upshot has projected counts. For now, use those for your Geek’s Guide. Shaheen (D-NH) around +5% and McConnell (R-KY) around +13%, both ahead of their pre-election polls. Ambiguous for estimating Delta. 8:27pm: Reader Forrest asked me how The [...]

Tags: 2014 Election

Errors Are Inevitable – But Who Will Benefit?

November 4th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Despite the certainty of pundits, we actually don’t know who will win the Senate! In The New Yorker, I explain. From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the [...]

Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Geek’s Guide To The Election, 2014 edition

November 4th, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Download it! It includes instructions for estimating Delta. Liveblogging will start around 8:00pm. Useful links (will add as day goes on): HuffPollster: Senate Election Live-Tracker. DailyKos Elections, hour-by-hour guide. New York Times, The Upshot, Senate tracker.