Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2012 Election'

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years

October 17th, 2014, 12:49pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He noticed no overall bias averaged across all elections; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · Senate

The Dog That Didn’t Bark (AR-Sen)

July 10th, 2014, 11:39pm by Sam Wang

Today, the NYT’s Nate Cohn speculates about the problem of low-quality polls in Senate races. It’s an interesting piece with lots for poll junkies. However, I am compelled to offer several gentle corrections. My bottom line: polls are better than he implies, especially when they are aggregated properly. And Senator Pryor (D-AR) is probably a [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election

Has the shutdown leveled the House playing field?

October 11th, 2013, 10:08pm by Sam Wang

Tomorrow at 4:00pm ET, I’ll be on MSNBC’s Disrupt with host Karen Finney and E.J. Dionne. In addition to the sharp swing in the last week (now a median of D+8% in the generic Congressional, n=5 surveys), I’ll mention this:

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House

A draft of a paper on the Meta-analysis

October 7th, 2013, 8:27am by Sam Wang

Dear readers, I’ve been invited to write an academic article on the Meta-analysis. I’m horribly late with it…but I do have a draft. I’d be interested in your thoughts and reactions. I’m sure I have not done justice to some important topics. The article text is here (PDF) and the figures are here (6.7 MB [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · Site News

Nate Silver’s move

July 24th, 2013, 11:04am by Sam Wang

By now most readers know about Nate Silver’s move from the New York Times to ESPN and ABC. ESPN purchased the FiveThirtyEight domain, suggesting a significant commitment by Silver. The move fits with Silver’s roots in sports, as well as his outsider status with regular journalists. ABC will provide excellent broadcast opportunities during election seasons. [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Uncategorized

NYT forgets basic statistics; Bloomberg Businessweek forgets 2012

May 31st, 2013, 11:22pm by Sam Wang

I’ll take a brief break from fluorescent protein design, human genetics, and autism and dive back into the fray.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Slaying the gerrymander

February 3rd, 2013, 8:21am by Sam Wang

(Welcome, New York Times readers!) Thanks to commenters on this topic. Your feedback has shaped my thinking on this subject. I recall being skeptical that redistricting could have a major effect. As it turns out, the effects of partisan redistricting helped Republicans far more than I expected. One reason for my skepticism is that the [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Gerrymandering notes: how many votes to take House, 1992-2012

January 30th, 2013, 12:28am by Sam Wang

Dear PEC Readers, we’re going casual tonight. This is for frequent visitors and those of you on the RSS feed. I’ll explain…

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Reince’s plan, Carrico’s folly

January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang

Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Politics

The mailbag

January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Site News