Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2012 Election'

The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012

June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Realignment Myth

June 2nd, 2016, 3:35am by Sam Wang

With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

January 5th, 2016, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Redistricting

(On-campus) research assistant wanted

February 28th, 2015, 6:30am by Sam Wang

I’m looking for a research assistant at Princeton to work on a gerrymandering project at a scholarly level, i.e. for academic research. It will also have practical implications. There’s a posting at the Student Employment office – look for posting #35677! For now, students only please.

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · Princeton · Site News

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years

October 17th, 2014, 12:49pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He noticed no overall bias averaged across all elections; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · Senate

The Dog That Didn’t Bark (AR-Sen)

July 10th, 2014, 11:39pm by Sam Wang

Today, the NYT’s Nate Cohn speculates about the problem of low-quality polls in Senate races. It’s an interesting piece with lots for poll junkies. However, I am compelled to offer several gentle corrections. My bottom line: polls are better than he implies, especially when they are aggregated properly. And Senator Pryor (D-AR) is probably a [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election

Has the shutdown leveled the House playing field?

October 11th, 2013, 10:08pm by Sam Wang

Tomorrow at 4:00pm ET, I’ll be on MSNBC’s Disrupt with host Karen Finney and E.J. Dionne. In addition to the sharp swing in the last week (now a median of D+8% in the generic Congressional, n=5 surveys), I’ll mention this:

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House