Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2012 Election'

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

All The Reasons You Doubt Polls: Motivated Reasoning Strikes Again

October 14th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Some secrets are not dirty

October 10th, 2016, 9:48am by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%. In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response, he brought up many topics beloved by Republican rank-and-file voters: Bill Clinton, Benghazi, emails…it was a veritable Greatest Hits of 1996-2016. The likely [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election

How Should Volatility Be Defined?

October 9th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet Several of you point out that my analysis of Presidential races 1952-2016 in The American Prospect appears to conflict with an assertion by Nate Silver about this year’s Presidential race. Yesterday he discussed why he thinks 2016 is a year of high “volatility.” In the piece he says that he is preparing a more detailed [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election

The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite

October 7th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable. However, I should point out that the Meta-Margin could go to Clinton +7% and still be consistent with my argument. In The [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · Politics · President

The incredibly stable 2016 campaign

September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

August 16th, 2016, 5:41pm by Sam Wang

There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude. Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012

June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Realignment Myth

June 2nd, 2016, 3:35am by Sam Wang

With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President