Princeton Election Consortium

For a scientist, a moment of truth for a hypothesis is the experiment. In this case the “experiment” is the election. Here’s a quick run-through comparing our predictions with outcomes so far. Performance is extremely good. As was the case in 2004 and 2006, the results are consistent with the idea that relatively pure polling [...]

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During a campaign I am avidly attentive to polls and tactical details. But I don’t enjoy Election Night itself. If I could resist the social draw, I’d make an early night of it, then wait until the next day to see the results. The basic problem is that returns are slow to come in and [...]

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In a radio interview on Wednesday, I pointed out that averaged pre-election polls were very good predictors of final outcomes. Indeed, they are an underappreciated defense against fraud.

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Obama gained support nearly everywhere compared with John Kerry in 2004: But in some places the movement was 20 points or more in the other direction. Appalachians and Okies A lot of residents of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee sure didn’t like Obama. Imagine that. Click the map for the NYT interactive slide show.

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I realize that many readers do not share my politics. I’ve attempted to use my judgments, but not my preferences, in the analysis – perhaps with success. My intention was to provide any thinking person with relatively transparent analysis of polling data. So I was pleased to receive this note: “Although our politics are different, [...]

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Good morning! First, congratulations to President-elect Barack Obama. It’s a historic day. His campaign inspired millions. But also condolences for his grandmother’s passing – what a loss, and at what a time. Let’s take a quick look at the performance of the Meta-Analysis and my other predictions. Preliminarily, things look quite good. The EV total. [...]

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