Princeton Election Consortium

Taken by David Bergman. Check it out here.

[Read more →]

Forbes has an article on the “25 most influential liberals in the U.S. media.” It’s unintentionally amusing.

[Read more →]

Two recent events suggest that Coleman’s contest of the Minnesota Senate election result is nearing an end.

[Read more →]

Taken by Geosys and visible with 0.5-meter resolution here, at Popular Science. Thanks to Marc Ambinder and Andrew Sullivan at The Atlantic. Now, how to estimate the crowd from this image? Update: an interactive version via the Washington Post is here.

[Read more →]

As regular readers know, the meta-analysis is a hobby. I’ve only asked for support via ActBlue (nearly $45,000) or the NRSC. But now, a prize from Kevin Drum, who notes that my polling averages were extremely close to the final results. In addition to the 364 EV prediction (a bit seat-of-the-pants at the time, but [...]

[Read more →]

In the Minnesota Senate race, the count’s nearly final: Franken over Coleman by 225 votes, a margin of less than 0.01%. The final count is Franken 1,212,431, Coleman 1,212,206. Court challenges are pending, but the count will be certified this afternoon. So Franken wins the statistical coin toss in a race that was, in any [...]

[Read more →]

Regarding the Minnesota recount, reader RC points out: “By any meaningful scientific standard of measurement, the vote in Minnesota is a tie, and the recount process is just a mechanism for adjudicating a tie rather than a way of determining overall voter preference.” If RC is correct, this gives a different way to think about [...]

[Read more →]