First – for a list of ways to watch tomorrow’s festivities, go here. Online (C-SPAN, Hulu) as well as via MSNBC in a Starbucks near you. Now then…
For a look back at 2008, Pollster.com has an excellent roundup. Did you know that 30% of all votes were cast early? That more than ever, the 2008 [...]
Entries Tagged as '2008 Election'
Thoughts on Inauguration Eve
January 20th, 2009, 1:56am by Sam Wang
Tags: 2008 Election · Site News
On the unreasonable success of Congressional polls
January 7th, 2009, 3:29pm by Sam Wang
As regular readers know, the meta-analysis is a hobby. I’ve only asked for support via ActBlue (nearly $45,000) or the NRSC. But now, a prize from Kevin Drum, who notes that my polling averages were extremely close to the final results. In addition to the 364 EV prediction (a bit seat-of-the-pants at the time, but [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Franken wins by 225 (and our contest winners…)
January 5th, 2009, 8:52am by Sam Wang
In the Minnesota Senate race, the count’s nearly final: Franken over Coleman by 225 votes, a margin of less than 0.01%. The final count is Franken 1,212,431, Coleman 1,212,206. Court challenges are pending, but the count will be certified this afternoon. So Franken wins the statistical coin toss in a race that was, in any [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Ties, damned ties, and statistics
November 27th, 2008, 12:30am by Sam Wang
Regarding the Minnesota recount, reader RC points out: “By any meaningful scientific standard of measurement, the vote in Minnesota is a tie, and the recount process is just a mechanism for adjudicating a tie rather than a way of determining overall voter preference.” If RC is correct, this gives a different way to think about [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Race and voting
November 25th, 2008, 8:23am by Sam Wang
Courtesy of reader FZ, an excellent map at the NYT. By hitting “voting shifts” you get a mapped county version of shifts not only comapred with 2004, but also earlier years. He also notes analysis by Chicago (formerly Princeton) political scientist Eric Oliver, who suggests that the racial element occurs in islands of white communities [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Guess the beans in the jar!
November 24th, 2008, 1:00am by Sam Wang
Are you any good at those contests in which you guess the number of beans in the jar? If so, I sense an opportunity in the Minnesota recount. The first entry comes from FiveThirtyEight: Franken by 27 votes. Several commentators have linked to it with great credulity.
This seems like a classic setup for biased assimilation. [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Tiebreaking, secret sauce, and the case of the missing cell phones
November 21st, 2008, 9:25pm by Sam Wang
On Election Eve I gave predictions that came very close to the final outcomes. However, I made an assumption about missed cell phone users. Today I will show you that the same prediction arises without this assumption if we use the tie-breaking “secret sauce” I mentioned on Election Eve. What’s left is just polls, with [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008
November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang
Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election
The exuberance of likelier voters
November 12th, 2008, 10:44pm by Sam Wang
In today’s news, the circus continues: Sarah Palin is still looking for the real killer. Meanwhile, in real news: universal health care? Alaska Senate update: As I predicted from polls, Begich is pulling ahead. Andrew Sullivan is still clinging to the idea that turnout is suspiciously down from 2004, which I have pointed out is [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
