Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2008 Election'

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Some secrets are not dirty

October 10th, 2016, 9:48am by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%. In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response, he brought up many topics beloved by Republican rank-and-file voters: Bill Clinton, Benghazi, emails…it was a veritable Greatest Hits of 1996-2016. The likely [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election

The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite

October 7th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable. However, I should point out that the Meta-Margin could go to Clinton +7% and still be consistent with my argument. In The [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · Politics · President

The incredibly stable 2016 campaign

September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012

June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Realignment Myth

June 2nd, 2016, 3:35am by Sam Wang

With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

January 5th, 2016, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election