Princeton Election Consortium

Today we have a news story about the state-by-state spending patterns by the two campaigns. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more broadly. At first this may seem odd. But it makes sense in terms of voter power - and relates to a recent change I made in defining the [...]

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I don’t know about you, but the suspense is killing me. Where is that history trend headed? If you look at the details, the big state that hasn’t reported in weeks is Ohio. Once Ohio reports, we should have a fairly clear idea of the August swing, which I ascribe to McCain’s Celebrity(!)/Anti-Christ ads.
Update: …and, [...]

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The Meta-Analysis made a correct 2004 Election Eve prediction, and gives good single-glance information as the race heats up. Currently, in August, it moves relatively slowly due to the sparseness of polling data. But by September this problem will fade as the race picks up.

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A reader James asked about the extreme values that the “Voter Influence” measure was taking on. His comment and my reply are here. This quantity (seen in the right sidebar) expresses the marginal influence that individual voters have on the final outcome probability. Per his feedback, I’ve modifed it…

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The data feed from Pollster.com is live! Many thanks to Mark Blumenthal and Eric Dienstfrey for their assistance.

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While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at electoral-vote.com. Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.

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For those of you who followed my analysis in 2004, welcome back. Just as I did then, I’ll be providing meta-analysis of polling in the 2008 Presidential race. My central goal is to reduce hundreds of state-level polls to simple statistics that will show you the state of play. The methods will be transparent, and [...]

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