Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2008 Election'

Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012

June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The Realignment Myth

June 2nd, 2016, 3:35am by Sam Wang

With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican Party, but rather the visible manifestation of a realignment within the party that has been brewing for years. Will national voting [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

January 5th, 2016, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election

A draft of a paper on the Meta-analysis

October 7th, 2013, 8:27am by Sam Wang

Dear readers, I’ve been invited to write an academic article on the Meta-analysis. I’m horribly late with it…but I do have a draft. I’d be interested in your thoughts and reactions. I’m sure I have not done justice to some important topics. The article text is here (PDF) and the figures are here (6.7 MB [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · Site News

Environmental lead (Pb) and crime

January 4th, 2013, 6:30pm by Sam Wang

At Mother Jones, Kevin Drum has an in-depth article on the hypothesis that environmental lead  is a likely root cause of the increase in crime a generation ago. Even more importantly, removal of lead from gasoline may be responsible for the decrease in crime in the last few decades. Last night, Kevin and I discussed these ideas [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Who are these likely voters, anyway?

September 18th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registered to vote, but who will actually schlep to the polls (or vote by mail) in the election. Many of you have asked what is in these screens, and whether to be suspicious [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election

Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008

August 26th, 2012, 7:05am by Sam Wang

An obvious comparison is to ask how Ryan performed compared with Sarah Palin, another running-mate intended to be a game-changer. As you can see, a major advantage of the Meta-analysis is that it allows high-resolution tracking over time. This kind of precision is hard to achieve even with national polls, probably because there are fewer [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · President