Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2006 Elections'

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election

How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008

November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang

Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]

September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang

We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized

Palin not a hit with undecideds

August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

Why not to want a “prediction”

August 24th, 2008, 6:30am by Sam Wang

Many of you have asked for the snapshot to be extended to make a prediction of what will happen on Election Day. A close look at my Meta-Analysis from 2004 shows the problems in wanting such a thing, and how to gauge the limitations of even the most careful of predictions.

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Tags: 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Quick NJ Governor’s Race Calculation

October 11th, 2005, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

In the New Jersey governor’s race, recent polls show the Corzine-Forrester margin as 8% (48-40, Fairleigh-Dickinson, 10/4-9), 2% (47-45, Marist, 10/5-6), 7% (44-37, Star-Ledger, 10/3-6), 9% (43-34, Monmouth, 9/21-26), and 4% (48-44, Quinnipiac, 9/20-25). The average margin is Corzine ahead of Forrester by 6.0 ± 1.3% (mean ± SEM). That puts Corzine 4.6 sigma ahead [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Meta-analysis