Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.
Entries Tagged as '2006 Elections'
How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008
November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election
Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]
September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang
We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)
September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang
It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized
Palin not a hit with undecideds
August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang
Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. [...]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
