Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries Tagged as '2004 Election'

Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?

July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate

A draft of a paper on the Meta-analysis

October 7th, 2013, 8:27am by Sam Wang

Dear readers, I’ve been invited to write an academic article on the Meta-analysis. I’m horribly late with it…but I do have a draft. I’d be interested in your thoughts and reactions. I’m sure I have not done justice to some important topics. The article text is here (PDF) and the figures are here (6.7 MB [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · Site News

Who are these likely voters, anyway?

September 18th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registered to vote, but who will actually schlep to the polls (or vote by mail) in the election. Many of you have asked what is in these screens, and whether to be suspicious [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election

How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008

November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang

Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Battleground-state spending: comparisons with 2004

August 18th, 2008, 10:26pm by Sam Wang

Today we have a news story about the state-by-state spending patterns by the two campaigns. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more broadly. At first this may seem odd. But it makes sense in terms of voter power – and relates to a recent change I made in defining the [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election

WSJ Articles

January 12th, 2005, 1:00am by Sam Wang

The Wall Street Journal articles about this site are accessible here, as well as a follow-up article.

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Tags: 2004 Election · Site News

My Experience on FOX News

January 8th, 2005, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

After a hiatus to do real work, I am back. This site really needs to be reorganized, and perhaps written up as a proper print article. In the meantime, I promised to describe the pre-election Fox News interview…

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Tags: 2004 Election

Exit Polling Articles

December 2nd, 2004, 11:30am by Sam Wang

Several interesting and good articles about exit polls. Here is a piece in the Washington Post about demystification of exit polls. Also, in this week’s New Yorker is a great article by Louis Menand on a meeting that took place at Stanford at which pollsters discussed the interpretation of this year’s results. Essentially, they think [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Displaying the Election Results

December 2nd, 2004, 11:30am by Sam Wang

Election results can be displayed in many ways. The cartograms used on this site are a way of displaying electoral votes accurately. To see displays done by population or on a county-by-county basis, see these interesting maps.

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Tags: 2004 Election

Putting the Florida Controversy to Rest

November 28th, 2004, 6:00am by Sam Wang

I am moving my post-election comments on Florida here. This is partly to maintain order and partly because I am starting to wonder whether there is a story here. After chewing over the Berkeley group’s analysis and corresponding with some of you, I have thought of reasons why there is no real county-level anomaly. The [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election