Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Why Your Vote Matters: New Jersey, Ground Zero for swing districts

October 26th, 2018, 7:00am by Sam Wang


There are swing Congressional districts all over the nation. And right here in Princeton, we have an exceptional density of close races.

Within 25 miles of Princeton are three Congressional districts in which October poll medians [NJ] [PA] show the two candidates within 1 or 2 percentage points of each other:

NJ 7th (Malinowski-D vs. Lance-R-inc), NJ 3rd (Kim-D vs. MacArthur-R-inc), and PA 1st (Wallace-D vs. Fitzpatrick-R-inc). And there are several more races that are rated almost as competitive.

In these districts, getting out the vote for your preferred candidate is exceptionally powerful. In terms of influencing the probability of who controls the House in 2019, turning out one vote in these districts is ~100 times more powerful than casting your own vote in a less-competitive district.

It’s going to rain this weekend, but that’s an even better time to canvass – everyone will be at home!

Tags: 2018 Election · House

2 Comments so far ↓

Leave a Comment