Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 6th, 2016

All estimates point toward HRC>50% probability. What determines the exact number?

November 6th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang

Three sets of data point in the same direction: The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%. National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later). Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%. Based on this [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

The Nevada bonus is back

November 6th, 2016, 10:17am by Sam Wang

Two states are hard to poll accurately, probably because they have high rates of migration: Alaska and Nevada. In addition, Nevada has a high Hispanic population, which votes heavily Democratic. Based on early voting, it looks like 2016 will be a repeat of 2010 and 2012, in which Democrats outperformed Nevada polls by 10 and 3 [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Confidence is associated with increased turnout

November 5th, 2016, 10:40pm by Sam Wang

I’m getting mail claiming that when voters are sure their candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. Therefore (these are Democrats writing) I should pipe down. However, this speculation contradicts both human nature and empirical evidence.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Beyoncé and Me

November 5th, 2016, 5:56am by Sam Wang

Well, this was unexpected. The clip is here.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Sound bites and bug bites

November 4th, 2016, 9:19am by Sam Wang

It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug. https://t.co/3eefhWzI3y — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 19, 2016 We’re entering a period when all the math and data gets converted to short quotes. The above quote is pre-Comey, but I will live with it. I have some interviews [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

On CNN Digital: watch the data, not the drama

November 3rd, 2016, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

So, Julian Zelizer and I had an e-chat about next Tuesday on CNN Digital. Mostly themes you know!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #19: Election Night

November 3rd, 2016, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

In this episode, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what we’ll be watching for on Election Night.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Slow train coming

November 3rd, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang

The PEC calculation relies on state-level polls, which take time to come in. But by now the Meta-Analysis is current: of the top ten states listed in The Power Of One Voter, nearly all polls are post-Comey. The exceptions are Iowa and Michigan. Michigan is vexing because of one oddball survey taken over a two-month [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Not 100%

November 3rd, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang

For a moment this morning, the top banner probability has read 100%. Sorry, rounding glitch in the software. It should max out at >99%. Fixing soon.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Between Two Quants

November 2nd, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

NYC readers, tonight I’ll be at the American Museum of Natural History, I’ll have a discussion with The Upshot’s Josh Katz. Our topic is The Science of Predicting an Election, with an added special focus on his approach to visual data representations using maps. It’s part of the SciCafe series and is free of charge. [...]

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Tags: Politics · Uncategorized